Don't worry EB2 2015 folks

[beerboy17]

26 minutes ago, Iriswest said:

There are still 100k visas to be utilized. August and September 2021 lo pallilu panchinattu pancharu GCs. 86k is a big number in one quarter. 100k should clear 80% of filers who filed before June.

There are tens of thousands in src and lin so will they be transferred and give palli or service center will give palli..

[BacklogBadham]

50 minutes ago, beerboy17 said:

There are tens of thousands in src and lin so will they be transferred and give palli or service center will give palli..

I think better to wait until mid of Oct bro. No one knows including USCIS and DOS. Retro ayithe avvakapovachu until unless FB visa lu ekkada la akkada kuda last Q lo 100K isthe thappa. But I don't see that possibility. Wait and watch. 

[Jupiter]

On 7/9/2022 at 2:13 PM, Complex said:

@BacklogBadham GP.

Please mention which docs we need to keep it ready and which vaccines we need to take in the meantime? 

@BacklogBadham Documents list for 2015 PD please?

[*Prince Charming]

On 7/9/2022 at 1:00 PM, BacklogBadham said:

Don't read it too much. It will mess up your daily routine. Always be in reality and enjoy daily routine life. Do not drag yourself into GC mess up. Avasaram ayyithe thappa do not join in telegram and trackitt. It will take you into big disappointment. My analysis and advice. You can ignore it as well. 

1. As per USCIS Q&A 2022 May 31 varaku 150K EB GC's issues so they are on track to utilize all available numbers. After May 31st ante enkoka 4 months undi e FY ki. Worst case lo ayyina 1230-130K easy ga target kodatharu. Last year last quarter lo 100K kottaru. So no worries e year kuda min 100K ekkadiki podhu. 

So 150+120 vesukunna easy ga 270K ante almost Anni use chrsinattte. 

 

2. Consulates lo speed thaggindhi both FB and EB approval lo. Max 12K kuda approve cheyyalekapothunnaru. Expecting spillover 60-80K. Adi just minimum. 

 

3. Sep kuda EB2 inch kuda move avvadu. Enduku ante enough application vunnai so they won't move further e FY .

 

Ee 3 points meedha naa analysis. 

1. EB2 will move very fast at least will clear 2015 by end of 2023. Don't expect miracles immediately dudes like Oct 2022 Ala. They will calculate spillover and other aspects like ROW demand until Feb. Just look at this year pattern & you will have an idea. 

2. Oct lo move avvochu avvakapovachu because they won't get good inventory until Jan and Feb so Oct lo move avvaledu enka avvadhu ani disappointment ki asale povadhu especially 2015 EB2 folks just wait 2023 motham ayye varaku. You will get your turn after Q2. 

3. EB3 kuda Manchi movement untundhi pakka since consulates lo not issuing many EB visas so Avanni spill avvuthayi. Dhani Kosam kuda wait until Q2 anthe Kani 1 or 2 months move avvaledu ani lolli aapandi. 

4. EB1 is current so Spillover ye konchem vachina e year Nundi EB2I will get most for sure ga. Nobody got any idea entha vasthayi anedi including visa lekka lu vese saaru ki kuda no idea until he sees inventory and spill from FB. So stop panic avvatam. 

5.  Last and most imp every day e rochu Gola aapesi please concentrate on skills and family. 35 plus lo GC vasthe chesehem ledu best example nene. Andariki vasthadi but late avochu. This is pure luck anthe kaani kaaya kashtam chesthe echedhi kaadu that means dates move ayyithe apply chesi circus chudatame. Example nene. 2012 current avvagane apply chesa did nothing and followed nothing. Adhe vachindi 3 months lo. Enkoka co employer same 2012 did humgama like trackitt telegram groups calling agents etc. What he got ? Depression. So neneu cheppedhi just dates vachaka apply cheyyandi anthe kaani we do not special skills for approval. Best example downgrades and interfile batch. Naa opinion vaalle Sagam penta chesindi last year. USCIS entha thappundho manolladhi anthe thappundhi e mess up lo. Anyway 2015 EB2 folks get ready with docs. Monnati varaku dates rapid movement chusi hungama chesaru ninna Aug bulletin chusi lolli start chesaru country cap enka move avvadu 2015 new 2012 etc sollu. Go with the flow and and check your lottery. Anthe. 

Post konchem peddhadhe but depression ayyina vaallaki especially Mee hands lo leni dhaniki Meeku meere depression trigger point nokkukovatam chusi Vesa e post. Good luck all. 

 

Bro, very good post. Appreciate your analysis.

[spiral25]

7 hours ago, Jupiter said:

@BacklogBadham Documents list for 2015 PD please?

+1 - list plz

[Complex]

idhi chusara anyone.

 

[JollyReddy]

53 minutes ago, Complex said:

idhi chusara anyone.

 

timestamp cheppu susi pedatam 

[BacklogBadham]

2 hours ago, Complex said:

idhi chusara anyone.

 

Manollu e guys ni nammatam appali bro. He was one of the reason EB3 penta ki asalu enka ayyipoyindhi EB3 current annatlu cheppadu last year. Andarni usko usko annadu downgrade chesi almsot 70K EB visa waste chesaru.  As I said no one have any idea bro. Oct 22 2022 DOS vaadu FB data release chesthadu adhi vachaka oka idea vasthadi what is spillover number ani appatiki no one knows including USCIS. 

[no01]

1 hour ago, BacklogBadham said:

Manollu e guys ni nammatam appali bro. He was one of the reason EB3 penta ki asalu enka ayyipoyindhi EB3 current annatlu cheppadu last year. Andarni usko usko annadu downgrade chesi almsot 70K EB visa waste chesaru.  As I said no one have any idea bro. Oct 22 2022 DOS vaadu FB data release chesthadu adhi vachaka oka idea vasthadi what is spillover number ani appatiki no one knows including USCIS. 

Didnt USCIS released FB data recently? like how many issued till date ani? daani batti next 3 months lo enni approve cheyyochu and approx enni spillover avvochu ani thelusthundi kada? he is estimating 40K - 75K

[Pavanonline]

40 minutes ago, no01 said:

Didnt USCIS released FB data recently? like how many issued till date ani? daani batti next 3 months lo enni approve cheyyochu and approx enni spillover avvochu ani thelusthundi kada? he is estimating 40K - 75K

22nd na realease avtadi anukunta

[KothaKurrodu]

Spillover base cheskoni oct nundi dates move avthaya?

[BacklogBadham]

4 hours ago, no01 said:

Didnt USCIS released FB data recently? like how many issued till date ani? daani batti next 3 months lo enni approve cheyyochu and approx enni spillover avvochu ani thelusthundi kada? he is estimating 40K - 75K

May varaku release ayyindhi. Every month 22nd ki release chrsthunnadu. E sari kuda pedha ga change undadhu max 12-15K estharemo akkada. 40-70K already estimated andharu based on FB. 

[BacklogBadham]

3 hours ago, KothaKurrodu said:

Spillover base cheskoni oct nundi dates move avthaya?

Might be in Q2. 

[spiral25]

1 hour ago, BacklogBadham said:

Might be in Q2. 

[BacklogBadham]

They have approved 13456 for FB at consulates for June 2022.

That means total ga 119228 aaprove chesaru until June 2022 varaki.

Let calculate now .

119228 - 226000 by DOS  = 106772

FB ki USCIS ( DOS and USCIS seperate ga issue chethayi )  lo 20K varaku estharu every year and they are on track as well so = 106772 - 20,000 = 86772

June tarvatha migilindi 3 months at consulates for DOS and USCIS max 20K ne so just calculate at consulates.

As per trend and based on last years data I mean pre covid last Q lo baagne estharu DOS vaallu so lat 3 months lo oka 14k vesukundham every month ki that means total 42K estharu

 

86772-42000 = 44,772  Spillover ?