Jump to content

September 2022 Visa bulletin Prediction , spillover update and more


Complex

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Complex said:

someone on trackitt did some analysis  

 

Getting back to the FOIA and I140 pending visa inventory from USCIS for EB2 and EB3.

As of November 12, 2019 USCIS stated:
EB2C 39,517,
EB2I 284,207,
EB2 total: 313,724.

EB3C 8,930
EB3I 66,362
EB3P 5,262
EB3 total: 80,5554

EB3 other total was 1200 with 33 philipines and 230 India.

EB4 total was 36,305
Elsalvador was 13,324
Guatemala was 11,171
Hondurals 9,835
Mexico 1,975

EB5 total was 27,931
EB5C 27,251
EB5I 189
Vietname 491

On November 16, 2020 this changed to:
EB2C 31,390
EB2I 313,066
Everyone else wiped clean.

EB3C 7068
EB3I 67,926
EB3 total 74,994

EB3C others 562
EB3I others 181
Total 743.

EB4 total 45,476
Elsalvador 15,355
Gautemala 16,452
Honuras 11,103
Mexico 2,566

EB5 total 21,731
EB5C 21,253.
EB5 Vietnam 478

Interestingly their multiplier for Eb2 was 1.0. This is based on the multitude of EB2 duplicates at least per 2016 data.
So USCIS says, for every EB2 applicant I140 there is only one I140 pending including all dependents.

For Eb3 the multiplier is 1.1 and for EB3 other 1.5.
For Eb5 the multiplier is 1.9
EB4 the multiplier is 0.3.

At the very least, we know that EB2I added 284,207 - 313,066. Approximately 30k more.
Eb3I 66,362 - 67,926. Approximately 1.3 k more.

Yes, this includes fresh I-140s and so on from 2020 or whatever. I am just pointing out the multiplier and the clean up of the ROW inventory as a result of the pandemic spillover. By November 2020 USCIS had no pending ROW inventory for the most part in Eb2 outside India and China and Eb3 except India, China, and philipines.

Based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the family-based spillover to EB1 will be used by EB1I and Eb1C and any ROW per normal standards. Based on the 2020 November data, there are not that many ghosts waiting in EB1 to eat up 80k numbers.

Additionally, based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the EB1 spillover to EB2 will be used by Eb2I after worst case EB2 ROW demand is met and China gets their 5600 visas or some number. So calculate the worst-case EB2 ROW usage of applications filed in 2021 and 2022 and set the visa bulletin in November 2021. This is why EB2I was given high priority this year by USCIS and they said they are focussing on this category.

peddollu and goppollu matladedhi emi ardam kaadu

matter in 2 lines pls? EB2I retrogress avthunda leka further movement untada in fiscal yr 2023?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Complex said:

someone on trackitt did some analysis  

 

Getting back to the FOIA and I140 pending visa inventory from USCIS for EB2 and EB3.

As of November 12, 2019 USCIS stated:
EB2C 39,517,
EB2I 284,207,
EB2 total: 313,724.

EB3C 8,930
EB3I 66,362
EB3P 5,262
EB3 total: 80,5554

EB3 other total was 1200 with 33 philipines and 230 India.

EB4 total was 36,305
Elsalvador was 13,324
Guatemala was 11,171
Hondurals 9,835
Mexico 1,975

EB5 total was 27,931
EB5C 27,251
EB5I 189
Vietname 491

On November 16, 2020 this changed to:
EB2C 31,390
EB2I 313,066
Everyone else wiped clean.

EB3C 7068
EB3I 67,926
EB3 total 74,994

EB3C others 562
EB3I others 181
Total 743.

EB4 total 45,476
Elsalvador 15,355
Gautemala 16,452
Honuras 11,103
Mexico 2,566

EB5 total 21,731
EB5C 21,253.
EB5 Vietnam 478

Interestingly their multiplier for Eb2 was 1.0. This is based on the multitude of EB2 duplicates at least per 2016 data.
So USCIS says, for every EB2 applicant I140 there is only one I140 pending including all dependents.

For Eb3 the multiplier is 1.1 and for EB3 other 1.5.
For Eb5 the multiplier is 1.9
EB4 the multiplier is 0.3.

At the very least, we know that EB2I added 284,207 - 313,066. Approximately 30k more.
Eb3I 66,362 - 67,926. Approximately 1.3 k more.

Yes, this includes fresh I-140s and so on from 2020 or whatever. I am just pointing out the multiplier and the clean up of the ROW inventory as a result of the pandemic spillover. By November 2020 USCIS had no pending ROW inventory for the most part in Eb2 outside India and China and Eb3 except India, China, and philipines.

Based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the family-based spillover to EB1 will be used by EB1I and Eb1C and any ROW per normal standards. Based on the 2020 November data, there are not that many ghosts waiting in EB1 to eat up 80k numbers.

Additionally, based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the EB1 spillover to EB2 will be used by Eb2I after worst case EB2 ROW demand is met and China gets their 5600 visas or some number. So calculate the worst-case EB2 ROW usage of applications filed in 2021 and 2022 and set the visa bulletin in November 2021. This is why EB2I was given high priority this year by USCIS and they said they are focussing on this category.

em chestaru ee endless analysis tho, none of this is reality :) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, no01 said:

peddollu and goppollu matladedhi emi ardam kaadu

matter in 2 lines pls? EB2I retrogress avthunda leka further movement untada in fiscal yr 2023?

anduke esa brother, evvarana decode chesi cheptharu ani@3$%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Complex said:

someone on trackitt did some analysis  

 

Getting back to the FOIA and I140 pending visa inventory from USCIS for EB2 and EB3.

As of November 12, 2019 USCIS stated:
EB2C 39,517,
EB2I 284,207,
EB2 total: 313,724.

EB3C 8,930
EB3I 66,362
EB3P 5,262
EB3 total: 80,5554

EB3 other total was 1200 with 33 philipines and 230 India.

EB4 total was 36,305
Elsalvador was 13,324
Guatemala was 11,171
Hondurals 9,835
Mexico 1,975

EB5 total was 27,931
EB5C 27,251
EB5I 189
Vietname 491

On November 16, 2020 this changed to:
EB2C 31,390
EB2I 313,066
Everyone else wiped clean.

EB3C 7068
EB3I 67,926
EB3 total 74,994

EB3C others 562
EB3I others 181
Total 743.

EB4 total 45,476
Elsalvador 15,355
Gautemala 16,452
Honuras 11,103
Mexico 2,566

EB5 total 21,731
EB5C 21,253.
EB5 Vietnam 478

Interestingly their multiplier for Eb2 was 1.0. This is based on the multitude of EB2 duplicates at least per 2016 data.
So USCIS says, for every EB2 applicant I140 there is only one I140 pending including all dependents.

For Eb3 the multiplier is 1.1 and for EB3 other 1.5.
For Eb5 the multiplier is 1.9
EB4 the multiplier is 0.3.

At the very least, we know that EB2I added 284,207 - 313,066. Approximately 30k more.
Eb3I 66,362 - 67,926. Approximately 1.3 k more.

Yes, this includes fresh I-140s and so on from 2020 or whatever. I am just pointing out the multiplier and the clean up of the ROW inventory as a result of the pandemic spillover. By November 2020 USCIS had no pending ROW inventory for the most part in Eb2 outside India and China and Eb3 except India, China, and philipines.

Based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the family-based spillover to EB1 will be used by EB1I and Eb1C and any ROW per normal standards. Based on the 2020 November data, there are not that many ghosts waiting in EB1 to eat up 80k numbers.

Additionally, based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the EB1 spillover to EB2 will be used by Eb2I after worst case EB2 ROW demand is met and China gets their 5600 visas or some number. So calculate the worst-case EB2 ROW usage of applications filed in 2021 and 2022 and set the visa bulletin in November 2021. This is why EB2I was given high priority this year by USCIS and they said they are focussing on this category.

Evaru bro ee mahanubhavudu. Visa laekkallo PHD chesada leka notikochindhi raasada. Vaammo endhi ee pichi. Ekkada Manam chesede athi ani anukuntunna but Ethanu evaro voopiri gaali water food Anni GC meedha ne depend la Lekka lu vesukunnadu. Antha chesi final ga conclusion ledu bongu ledu. Asalu athaniki Aina Ardham avvuthunda malli chadivithe a Lekka lu. I don't know his PD but Theda kotti date current avvakunte he will be in big disappointment e Lekka lu chusaka.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Complex said:

someone on trackitt did some analysis  

 

Getting back to the FOIA and I140 pending visa inventory from USCIS for EB2 and EB3.

As of November 12, 2019 USCIS stated:
EB2C 39,517,
EB2I 284,207,
EB2 total: 313,724.

EB3C 8,930
EB3I 66,362
EB3P 5,262
EB3 total: 80,5554

EB3 other total was 1200 with 33 philipines and 230 India.

EB4 total was 36,305
Elsalvador was 13,324
Guatemala was 11,171
Hondurals 9,835
Mexico 1,975

EB5 total was 27,931
EB5C 27,251
EB5I 189
Vietname 491

On November 16, 2020 this changed to:
EB2C 31,390
EB2I 313,066
Everyone else wiped clean.

EB3C 7068
EB3I 67,926
EB3 total 74,994

EB3C others 562
EB3I others 181
Total 743.

EB4 total 45,476
Elsalvador 15,355
Gautemala 16,452
Honuras 11,103
Mexico 2,566

EB5 total 21,731
EB5C 21,253.
EB5 Vietnam 478

Interestingly their multiplier for Eb2 was 1.0. This is based on the multitude of EB2 duplicates at least per 2016 data.
So USCIS says, for every EB2 applicant I140 there is only one I140 pending including all dependents.

For Eb3 the multiplier is 1.1 and for EB3 other 1.5.
For Eb5 the multiplier is 1.9
EB4 the multiplier is 0.3.

At the very least, we know that EB2I added 284,207 - 313,066. Approximately 30k more.
Eb3I 66,362 - 67,926. Approximately 1.3 k more.

Yes, this includes fresh I-140s and so on from 2020 or whatever. I am just pointing out the multiplier and the clean up of the ROW inventory as a result of the pandemic spillover. By November 2020 USCIS had no pending ROW inventory for the most part in Eb2 outside India and China and Eb3 except India, China, and philipines.

Based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the family-based spillover to EB1 will be used by EB1I and Eb1C and any ROW per normal standards. Based on the 2020 November data, there are not that many ghosts waiting in EB1 to eat up 80k numbers.

Additionally, based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the EB1 spillover to EB2 will be used by Eb2I after worst case EB2 ROW demand is met and China gets their 5600 visas or some number. So calculate the worst-case EB2 ROW usage of applications filed in 2021 and 2022 and set the visa bulletin in November 2021. This is why EB2I was given high priority this year by USCIS and they said they are focussing on this category.

Ee lekkallo nee GC eppudu vasthundho chusuko @Iriswest

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BacklogBadham said:

Evaru bro ee mahanubhavudu. Visa laekkallo PHD chesada leka notikochindhi raasada. Vaammo endhi ee pichi. Ekkada Manam chesede athi ani anukuntunna but Ethanu evaro voopiri gaali water food Anni GC meedha ne depend la Lekka lu vesukunnadu. Antha chesi final ga conclusion ledu bongu ledu. Asalu athaniki Aina Ardham avvuthunda malli chadivithe a Lekka lu. I don't know his PD but Theda kotti date current avvakunte he will be in big disappointment e Lekka lu chusaka.

Youre Crazy Season 3 GIF by The Office

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Pavanonline said:

evariki teliyadu kabatte so much analysis :D aak is pak, pak is aak so final result could be aak, pak or karepak.

Edaithe adi. Maaku oka paccha aaku ade cardu vaste chaalu.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Complex said:

someone on trackitt did some analysis  

 

Getting back to the FOIA and I140 pending visa inventory from USCIS for EB2 and EB3.

As of November 12, 2019 USCIS stated:
EB2C 39,517,
EB2I 284,207,
EB2 total: 313,724.

EB3C 8,930
EB3I 66,362
EB3P 5,262
EB3 total: 80,5554

EB3 other total was 1200 with 33 philipines and 230 India.

EB4 total was 36,305
Elsalvador was 13,324
Guatemala was 11,171
Hondurals 9,835
Mexico 1,975

EB5 total was 27,931
EB5C 27,251
EB5I 189
Vietname 491

On November 16, 2020 this changed to:
EB2C 31,390
EB2I 313,066
Everyone else wiped clean.

EB3C 7068
EB3I 67,926
EB3 total 74,994

EB3C others 562
EB3I others 181
Total 743.

EB4 total 45,476
Elsalvador 15,355
Gautemala 16,452
Honuras 11,103
Mexico 2,566

EB5 total 21,731
EB5C 21,253.
EB5 Vietnam 478

Interestingly their multiplier for Eb2 was 1.0. This is based on the multitude of EB2 duplicates at least per 2016 data.
So USCIS says, for every EB2 applicant I140 there is only one I140 pending including all dependents.

For Eb3 the multiplier is 1.1 and for EB3 other 1.5.
For Eb5 the multiplier is 1.9
EB4 the multiplier is 0.3.

At the very least, we know that EB2I added 284,207 - 313,066. Approximately 30k more.
Eb3I 66,362 - 67,926. Approximately 1.3 k more.

Yes, this includes fresh I-140s and so on from 2020 or whatever. I am just pointing out the multiplier and the clean up of the ROW inventory as a result of the pandemic spillover. By November 2020 USCIS had no pending ROW inventory for the most part in Eb2 outside India and China and Eb3 except India, China, and philipines.

Based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the family-based spillover to EB1 will be used by EB1I and Eb1C and any ROW per normal standards. Based on the 2020 November data, there are not that many ghosts waiting in EB1 to eat up 80k numbers.

Additionally, based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the EB1 spillover to EB2 will be used by Eb2I after worst case EB2 ROW demand is met and China gets their 5600 visas or some number. So calculate the worst-case EB2 ROW usage of applications filed in 2021 and 2022 and set the visa bulletin in November 2021. This is why EB2I was given high priority this year by USCIS and they said they are focussing on this category.

ee buddy interesting unnadu ani chusa trackitt lo buddy ki PHD korika lu unnai anta. sare entha lekka lu vesi thelchindi enti ante for 2015 AUG PD ki

 

So anywhere from 8 to 12 years. So my plan in life is a Phd. I am sticking to that. And I do not know, because of confirmation bias since you are in the same boat as I am.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Complex said:

mostly next Thursday release Sept VB.

From what I have seen in various forum's , sep VB ki mostly no change in EB2 dates.

Need to wait for oct VB.

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

Stop Motion Waiting GIF by cintascotch

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...