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September 2022 Visa bulletin Prediction , spillover update and more


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4 hours ago, Picheshwar said:

carl shusterman

 

sakka choodu 14 weeks not months

Perception ante ide emo@3$%

mind sees what it thinks haha 

14 months ayite bagundu 

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59 minutes ago, Pavanonline said:

these numbers give much more clarity on the pending inventory, so it's not as big as some folks in trackit are saying but not small as well. 

@csrcsr Whoever has already filed mostly will get by october, or even the next fiscal. And spillover, row demand will decide eb2 movement into 2015. Not looking good for 2015 i would say. 

ya, EB2 no movement  this year ani hint isthunaru

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14 minutes ago, LazyRohit said:

Perception ante ide emo@3$%

mind sees what it thinks haha 

14 months ayite bagundu 

emi perceptiono emo

ikkada janala gundelu aagipotayi

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deshamuduru movie lo ali sequence la vundi every month e visa bulletin racha asalu feb 2015 atleast Oct bulletin lo ayina vastado leka retrogress avuthado…..okkokkaru okkko prediction cheptunnaru

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58 minutes ago, krrish4u said:

deshamuduru movie lo ali sequence la vundi every month e visa bulletin racha asalu feb 2015 atleast Oct bulletin lo ayina vastado leka retrogress avuthado…..okkokkaru okkko prediction cheptunnaru

😭usche s manatho game adtunadu bro ..on same boat.

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someone on trackitt did some analysis  

 

Getting back to the FOIA and I140 pending visa inventory from USCIS for EB2 and EB3.

As of November 12, 2019 USCIS stated:
EB2C 39,517,
EB2I 284,207,
EB2 total: 313,724.

EB3C 8,930
EB3I 66,362
EB3P 5,262
EB3 total: 80,5554

EB3 other total was 1200 with 33 philipines and 230 India.

EB4 total was 36,305
Elsalvador was 13,324
Guatemala was 11,171
Hondurals 9,835
Mexico 1,975

EB5 total was 27,931
EB5C 27,251
EB5I 189
Vietname 491

On November 16, 2020 this changed to:
EB2C 31,390
EB2I 313,066
Everyone else wiped clean.

EB3C 7068
EB3I 67,926
EB3 total 74,994

EB3C others 562
EB3I others 181
Total 743.

EB4 total 45,476
Elsalvador 15,355
Gautemala 16,452
Honuras 11,103
Mexico 2,566

EB5 total 21,731
EB5C 21,253.
EB5 Vietnam 478

Interestingly their multiplier for Eb2 was 1.0. This is based on the multitude of EB2 duplicates at least per 2016 data.
So USCIS says, for every EB2 applicant I140 there is only one I140 pending including all dependents.

For Eb3 the multiplier is 1.1 and for EB3 other 1.5.
For Eb5 the multiplier is 1.9
EB4 the multiplier is 0.3.

At the very least, we know that EB2I added 284,207 - 313,066. Approximately 30k more.
Eb3I 66,362 - 67,926. Approximately 1.3 k more.

Yes, this includes fresh I-140s and so on from 2020 or whatever. I am just pointing out the multiplier and the clean up of the ROW inventory as a result of the pandemic spillover. By November 2020 USCIS had no pending ROW inventory for the most part in Eb2 outside India and China and Eb3 except India, China, and philipines.

Based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the family-based spillover to EB1 will be used by EB1I and Eb1C and any ROW per normal standards. Based on the 2020 November data, there are not that many ghosts waiting in EB1 to eat up 80k numbers.

Additionally, based on this data, it is a reasonable assumption that most of the EB1 spillover to EB2 will be used by Eb2I after worst case EB2 ROW demand is met and China gets their 5600 visas or some number. So calculate the worst-case EB2 ROW usage of applications filed in 2021 and 2022 and set the visa bulletin in November 2021. This is why EB2I was given high priority this year by USCIS and they said they are focussing on this category.

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