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There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

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Kate Winslet had a surprising ‘Titanic’ reunion while producing her latest film ‘Lee’
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Kate Winslet is sharing an anecdote about a “wonderful” encounter she recently had with someone from her star-making blockbuster film “Titanic.”

The Oscar winner was a guest on “The Graham Norton Show” this week, where she discussed her new film “Lee,” in which she plays the fashion model-turned-war photographer Lee Miller from the World War II era.
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Winslet recounted that while she had previously executive produced a number of her projects, “Lee” was the first movie where she served as a full-on producer. That required her involvement from “beginning to end,” including when the film was scored in post-production.

She explained to Norton that when she attended the recording of the film’s score in London, while looking at the 120-piece orchestra, she saw someone who looked mighty familiar to her.

“I’m looking at this violinist and I thought, ‘I know that face!’” she said.

At one point, other musicians in the orchestra pointed to him while mouthing, “It’s him!” to her, and it continued to nag at Winslet, prompting her to wonder, “Am I related to this person? Who is this person?”

Finally, at the end of the day, the “Reader” star went in to where the orchestra was to meet the mystery violinist, and she was delighted to realize he was one of the violinists who played on the ill-fated Titanic ocean liner as it sank in James Cameron’s classic 1997 film.
“It was that guy!” Winslet exclaimed this week, later adding, “it was just wonderful” to see him again.

“We had so many moments like that in the film, where people I’ve either worked with before, or really known for a long time, kind of grown up in the industry with, they just showed up for me, and it was incredible.”

“Lee” released in theaters in late September, and is available to rent or buy on AppleTV+ or Amazon Prime.

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