High-voltage elections on the cards in Andhra Pradesh

[andhra_jp]

Andhra Pradesh had seen about 14 elections to the Legislative Assembly since its formation on November 1, 1956. Of them, 12 were in the unified State and two in the residual State.

While the Congress party had won eight times, all in the composite State, the TDP was victorious in five elections, including the one in 2014 after the State’s bifurcation, and the YSRCP once in 2019.

Until N.T Rama Rao founded the TDP in 1983, the elections were usually a one-sided affair with the Congress ruling the roost. Later, there were bipolar contests with the TDP and the Congress party dominating the political landscape.

But it’s going to be a different ball game this year. The ensuing elections are being touted as the ‘mother of all elections’.

Though majority of the seats are going to witness bipolar contests between the TDP-JSP combine and the ruling YSRCP, what makes things a high-voltage affair is the entry of Y.S. Sharmila onto the scenario.

Ms. Sharmila is the daughter of former Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy and sister of Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy. She is now heading the Congress party in the State. The grand old party, which had sunk into oblivion post bifurcation, is expecting to make a comeback.

YSRCP confident of comeback

The YSRCP is confident of making a comeback. Political experts say that Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s social engineering has been good and his minorities’ vote-bank is intact.

The recent unveiling of the 125-foot statue of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar in Vijayawada has gone well with the BCs, SCs and STs, the experts say. This apart, the YSRCP’s welfare schemes have benefited certain sections of voters, and that they may tilt the balance in favour of the YSRCP in the 2024 elections, the experts say.

But Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy may face certain problems in the form of growing dissidence and some anti-incumbency factor.

The rejig conundrum

The dissidence in the YSRCP has come to the fore with Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy making a major reshuffle of candidates. He has already reshuffled about 50 MLAs and MPs, and it is said that at least 75 existing candidates will be moved out to accommodate fresh faces.

This move is being touted as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, he is making sure that the anti-incumbency factor is neutralised at the constituency level by inducting fresh faces, on the other it can be counter-productive as the existing candidates can play a spoilsport.

As of now, Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy is firm in his saddle, but there is anti-incumbency at the constituency level, which the Opposition (TDP-JSP) hopes to cash on.

Congress upbeat

The other factor that may play against him, though not at a very large level, is that Ms. Sharmila may take away at least some part of his vote share. The traditional vote-bank of the Congress party shifted to the YSRCP after the State’s bifurcation, and Ms. Sharmila, who also shares the YSR legacy, is expected to dent the ruling party’s support base.

The Congress party is expected to put up a brave fight to regain some of its lost glory, and this may prove costly for Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy.

But experts say that she may take away some of the anti-Jagan votes, which may have gone to the TDP-JSP combine. But whatever influence she may wield, it is likely to benefit the TDP-JSP combine as the percentage of vote-share between the YSRCP and the TDP in the 2019 elections was barely 10.

But if we factor in the JSP vote-share, which was about 5.5%, the difference narrows down to about 4.5%. Hence, a marginal dent in the YSRCP vote-bank can swing the result in favour of the TDP-JSP, it is said.

Both the TDP and JSP claim that they have bettered their vote share, and some political analysts also share the view.

If Mr. Pawan Kalyan is successful in gaining the Kapu votes and if Ms. Sharmila can make a dent into the YSRCP vote-bank in the Rayalaseema region, then the going may be tough for Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy, as the TDP has already got its traditional vote-bank intact.

Reports of Kapu strongman Mudragada Padmanabham planning to join the JSP should be a cause for worry for the YSRCP as it can consolidate the Kapu vote base in East and West Godavari districts, which play a major role in the electoral politics.

The quitting of Mangalagiri MLA Alla Ramakrishna Reddy and Narasaraopet MP Lavu Sri Krishna Devarayalu is discomforting news for the YSRCP.

With the BJP too likely to announce its stand soon, the 2024 elections will witness a high-voltage battle in the State.

[nag]

Crap gallu antha leaders ga poti chestunnaru. State emo appula paalu though having one of the longest sea coastal line and natural resources.  Ivi saripovu annatu janalaki kula pichi. Devudu kooda kshaminchadu 

[futureofandhra]

16 minutes ago, nag said:

Crap gallu antha leaders ga poti chestunnaru. State emo appula paalu though having one of the longest sea coastal line and natural resources.  Ivi saripovu annatu janalaki kula pichi. Devudu kooda kshaminchadu 

public choice mari 

why to blame leaders when public choose like that

[nag]

6 minutes ago, futureofandhra said:

public choice mari 

why to blame leaders when public choose like that

Agreed bro. I'm blaming janalaney

[Anta Assamey]

[nag]

3 hours ago, Anta Assamey said:

High voltage elections ki shock koduthundha bayya