Tariffs could see U.S. GDP take a 10% hit in the second quarter, Carl Weinberg says WATCH NOW VIDE

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Tariffs could see U.S. GDP take a 10% hit in the second quarter, Carl Weinberg says

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Trump’s tariffs could see U.S. GDP take a 10% hit in second quarter: Economist

 

U.S. tariff policies announced Wednesday would see U.S. gross domestic product take a 10% hit in the second quarter of 2025, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist Carl Weinberg said in a note Thursday, potentially pushing the world’s largest economy into a recession after a predicted small contraction in the first quarter.

Weinberg estimated that tariffs would take $741 billion out of U.S. household real incomes or corporate profits, or more if fully accounting for all tariffs on aluminum, steel and non-exempt trade with Canada and Mexico. His calculation of an average tariff rate on two-dozen countries of at least 30% is greater than expected, he said.

The U.S. economy will also be hit by price rises, Weinberg added, with the rate of an imported item such as softwood lumber higher by up to 25% — even if some of the inflationary impact is cushioned by downward pressure on the economy.

— Jenni Reid