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There is no case for rate cuts PCE has now accelerated for 4 straight prints, to an annualized 3%,

human1234

By human1234
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human1234

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There is no case for rate cuts

PCE has now accelerated for 4 straight prints, to an annualized 3%, up from 2.6% in January. And this is *before* tariffs begin to really feed through the economy.

Consumer spending remains solid. Layoffs are not appearing. Wage growth remains at .4-.5% mom. Q2 GDP was just revised up to 3.3%. Corporate earnings are (lol) being revised UP.

There. Is. No. Case.

And this is important because an unjustified cut in September will cause the bond market to have to step in and be the adult, just as it did in Q4 2024. 

And if the long-end blows out - either because of inflation fears or the President's clown-like barrage on Fed independence - risk assets go with it. 

 

 

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