BREAKING: *JOBS REPORT* The US economy adds 22,000 jobs in August, below expectations of 75,000.

[DonnyStrumpet]

3 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

The system is responding to the corrections. Hold on the rates for few more months…

Low new job creation is not at all a sign of worry, it is a concern but not a worry. It’s a short term phenomenon. 

Even if rates are cut, it will take few months to see the effect on the market. Ignore the stock markets.

Yeah lowering interest rates now will undo all the hard work. I think they should continue for another two quarters. 

[Android_Halwa]

6 minutes ago, karna11 said:

naa questions ki answer seyyandi vayya , rate cut ithee house price endhuku drop avuthyii, ee logic naku ardam kalee

Kaadu…its indirectly helps but not directly…fed rate cuts won’t lead to mortgage cuts right away…a lot of other factors mainly 10 yr treasury yields effect the rates. 

[Android_Halwa]

Mortgage rates taggithe house sales perugutayi anukuntunaru….its a LOL theory.

If mortgage rates are cut by 1% over the next one year, we are looking at lower house valuations….a blind estimate but we will see a trillion dollar worth of valuations go puff, leading to more foreclosures and bankruptcies which is a bigger concern. 
 

Mee mokalu manda….burra la gujju vunnodu rate cuts expect cheyadu…it will lead to massive under valuations. 1% cut over the next 2 years is feasible but any faster cuts will wipeout the gains

[karna11]

7 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

Kaadu…its indirectly helps but not directly…fed rate cuts won’t lead to mortgage cuts right away…a lot of other factors mainly 10 yr treasury yields effect the rates. 

yehaa idhi idea vundhi naaku, pina andaru house rates tagguthyii rate cut chestee antunnaruu naaku idhe ardam kavatlaa

[Sucker]

23 minutes ago, Mancode said:

Dumb mfkers cut the rates now 

Economy mogga gudisipoona no growth sense in Fed and inflation sense in administration 

These people ruined US

It's not covid anna money print chesi PPP loans ichi interest rates cut chesthe 2-3 jobs ivvataniki. Those golden days are gone. Aa ship chuse antha water la dhookaru aa ship yeppudo vellipoyindhi anna 

Interest rates cut chesina job market chaos and AI booming tho new hiring ante hope you find something better anukodame

[karna11]

4 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

Mortgage rates taggithe house sales perugutayi anukuntunaru….its a LOL theory.

If mortgage rates are cut by 1% over the next one year, we are looking at lower house valuations….a blind estimate but we will see a trillion dollar worth of valuations go puff, leading to more foreclosures and bankruptcies which is a bigger concern. 
 

Mee mokalu manda….burra la gujju vunnodu rate cuts expect cheyadu…it will lead to massive under valuations. 1% cut over the next 2 years is feasible but any faster cuts will wipeout the gains

idhi ardam kala,  how rate cut will effect to lower the house value ?

[DonnyStrumpet]

3 minutes ago, karna11 said:

yehaa idhi idea vundhi naaku, pina andaru house rates tagguthyii rate cut chestee antunnaruu naaku idhe ardam kavatlaa

Bro. It’s still the same. Fed rate cuts and t bills move in the same direction. They are interdependent.
Feds issue t bills.
 

Banks borrow money using those T Bills.
 

And then we borrow money from banks through loans.
 

In a way fed cut effect will trickle down to end users. It’s just a series of steps/layers.
 

But the magnitude of decrease at fed level will not be same at ground level. 
 

 

[Sucker]

5 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

Mortgage rates taggithe house sales perugutayi anukuntunaru….its a LOL theory.

If mortgage rates are cut by 1% over the next one year, we are looking at lower house valuations….a blind estimate but we will see a trillion dollar worth of valuations go puff, leading to more foreclosures and bankruptcies which is a bigger concern. 
 

Mee mokalu manda….burra la gujju vunnodu rate cuts expect cheyadu…it will lead to massive under valuations. 1% cut over the next 2 years is feasible but any faster cuts will wipeout the gains

Janaalu antha covid maaya lo vunnaru le anna vidichey. Antha Dump gadi pans especially desi lu voorike ayyaru anukunnava stocks crypto PPP loans money printing 2-3 jobs adhi kuda remote more important Covid GC lu. Still adhe brama lo vunnaru vidichey pillalni 

[Android_Halwa]

1 minute ago, karna11 said:

idhi ardam kala,  how rate cut will effect to lower the house value ?

Almost all the houses sold in the last two years are already under negative equity and price correction happening. With instant dip in rates, the builders will sell of the existing inventory at lower prices and rates against to offset the losses in the last two years as they expect more rate cuts in the future.

So, in such a case the home prices will either be steady or fall but not going to increase. New homes will be priced to sell but used homes will be forced to cut the price and eventually ends in distress sale wiping out hundreds of thousands… 

and if this happens nationwide, small lenders will become bankrupt

 

[DonnyStrumpet]

4 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

Almost all the houses sold in the last two years are already under negative equity and price correction happening. With instant dip in rates, the builders will sell of the existing inventory at lower prices and rates against to offset the losses in the last two years as they expect more rate cuts in the future.

So, in such a case the home prices will either be steady or fall but not going to increase. New homes will be priced to sell but used homes will be forced to cut the price and eventually ends in distress sale wiping out hundreds of thousands… 

and if this happens nationwide, small lenders will become bankrupt

 

This was 2008 crisis. But builders learnt their lessons. They are keeping inventory in check. This situation is unlikely to happen ever again. Builder syndicate is too strong. 

[Android_Halwa]

Just now, DonnyStrumpet said:

This was 2008 crisis. But builders learnt their lessons. They are keeping inventory in check. This situation is unlikely to happen ever again. Builder syndicate is too strong. 

Demand-Supply is the ultimate formula which decides the pricing. But there is another factor…GREED. Often, this greed component will sit some where between the demand and supply and will eventually derail the price mechanism.

I don’t expect the 2008 type but there will be crisis. When a house which is sold for 800k and financed at 7% whose actual value is 600k, someone somewhere in the chain has to bear the loss. 

[akkum_bakkum]

52 minutes ago, Mancode said:

Dumb mfkers cut the rates now 

Economy mogga gudisipoona no growth sense in Fed and inflation sense in administration 

These people ruined US

Anna it looks like your personal issue here, waiting for refi na endi? Rate cuts is not a solution for this situation. When stocks r trading all time high, meaning ppl made more money than anytime in the history before....what good do you think rate cuts do? Inflation explodes...this is all you see. Already standard of living M gudisi poyindi, do u want everyone to beg and do lottory to bring food to the table?

[akkum_bakkum]

30 minutes ago, DonnyStrumpet said:

Bro. It’s still the same. Fed rate cuts and t bills move in the same direction. They are interdependent.
Feds issue t bills.
 

Banks borrow money using those T Bills.
 

And then we borrow money from banks through loans.
 

In a way fed cut effect will trickle down to end users. It’s just a series of steps/layers.
 

But the magnitude of decrease at fed level will not be same at ground level. 
 

 

there is a time-lapse in your cause and effect picture, which we are ignoring. Rates cuts now affect economy 6months to 1 year down the road, not immediately.

[Sam480]

28 minutes ago, Sucker said:

Janaalu antha covid maaya lo vunnaru le anna vidichey. Antha Dump gadi pans especially desi lu voorike ayyaru anukunnava stocks crypto PPP loans money printing 2-3 jobs adhi kuda remote more important Covid GC lu. Still adhe brama lo vunnaru vidichey pillalni 

AA Scene repeat avvadu, IMO Interest rates taggina house prices antha increase avvavu but atleast they might not fall . Job market kuda antha drastic ga improve avvadu

[akkum_bakkum]

11 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

Demand-Supply is the ultimate formula which decides the pricing. But there is another factor…GREED. Often, this greed component will sit some where between the demand and supply and will eventually derail the price mechanism.

I don’t expect the 2008 type but there will be crisis. When a house which is sold for 800k and financed at 7% whose actual value is 600k, someone somewhere in the chain has to bear the loss. 

Its almost always the end user - the buyer who bears all this brunt until he/she file bankruptcy....even in this case, insurance kicks in, banks and lenders are safe again. I dont think individual filing bankruptcy is a reliable scenario now....difference maker from 2008.