human1234 Posted November 3 Report Posted November 3 100% of top 200 insider trades were sells???  I pulled SEC Form 4 filings for the largest insider transactions over the past 30 days. Top 200 trades by dollar value. CEOs, CFOs, board members, the people who actually know what's happening inside these companies. Every single one was a sale. Not 90%. Not 95%. 100%. These aren't small positions either. We're talking $10M+ transactions from executives at companies across tech, finance, healthcare, industrials. When the people running the companies are unanimously heading for the exits, what does that tell you about where they think valuations are? For context, in 2019 the sell-to-buy ratio among insiders was about 3:1. Right now it's infinity:1. Either every executive simultaneously needs to buy a yacht or they know something we don't. When the people running the companies are unanimously heading for the exits, what does that tell you about where they think valuations are? Insiders are required to report trades within two business days, so this data is current. For context, in 2019 the sell-to-buy ratio among insiders was about 3:1, which is normal. Executives sell for lots of reasons but they only buy for one reason: they think the stock is going up. Right now the ratio is infinity to one. Either every executive simultaneously needs to buy a yacht or they know something we don't. We have been having debates in r/beatingthemarket and can't quite seem to gain confidence that this hype train will continue to rip. The last time insider selling was this lopsided was Q4 2021, right before the market dropped 25% in 2022. I'm not saying we're about to crash, but when the people with the best information are all doing the same thing, ignoring it seems stupid. https://www.reddit.com/r/economicCollapse/s/KQ9KywqxOe Quote
GelakoduKri Posted November 3 Report Posted November 3 14 minutes ago, human1234 said: 100% of top 200 insider trades were sells???  I pulled SEC Form 4 filings for the largest insider transactions over the past 30 days. Top 200 trades by dollar value. CEOs, CFOs, board members, the people who actually know what's happening inside these companies. Every single one was a sale. Not 90%. Not 95%. 100%. These aren't small positions either. We're talking $10M+ transactions from executives at companies across tech, finance, healthcare, industrials. When the people running the companies are unanimously heading for the exits, what does that tell you about where they think valuations are? For context, in 2019 the sell-to-buy ratio among insiders was about 3:1. Right now it's infinity:1. Either every executive simultaneously needs to buy a yacht or they know something we don't. When the people running the companies are unanimously heading for the exits, what does that tell you about where they think valuations are? Insiders are required to report trades within two business days, so this data is current. For context, in 2019 the sell-to-buy ratio among insiders was about 3:1, which is normal. Executives sell for lots of reasons but they only buy for one reason: they think the stock is going up. Right now the ratio is infinity to one. Either every executive simultaneously needs to buy a yacht or they know something we don't. We have been having debates in r/beatingthemarket and can't quite seem to gain confidence that this hype train will continue to rip. The last time insider selling was this lopsided was Q4 2021, right before the market dropped 25% in 2022. I'm not saying we're about to crash, but when the people with the best information are all doing the same thing, ignoring it seems stupid. https://www.reddit.com/r/economicCollapse/s/KQ9KywqxOe Short lo chepu BUY Or SELL ? Quote
paaparao Posted November 3 Report Posted November 3 21 minutes ago, karna11 said: Enti dhei meaning insider trading jaruguthondi chala companies lo. but SEC is sleeping ani reddit meaning. this same insider trading happened during 2022 1Q drop. so they are doubting that now also drop will happen. Quote
karna11 Posted November 4 Report Posted November 4 2 hours ago, paaparao said: insider trading jaruguthondi chala companies lo. but SEC is sleeping ani reddit meaning. this same insider trading happened during 2022 1Q drop. so they are doubting that now also drop will happen. A stocks luu jaraguthunnyii ? Quote
krishnaaa Posted November 4 Report Posted November 4 2 hours ago, paaparao said: insider trading jaruguthondi chala companies lo. but SEC is sleeping ani reddit meaning. this same insider trading happened during 2022 1Q drop. so they are doubting that now also drop will happen. Tightening was going on in 2022. Right now Fed is in an easing cycle and 7.5 Trillion dollars are sitting outside waiting for a dip. And the interest on this money keeps on decreasing as interest rate gets cut. This would force that money to come back. Margin interest also keeps going down...forcing people to get more margin. Just don't be in companies that get affected the first when layoffs happen....like restaurant stocks or luxury goods. Quote
paaparao Posted November 4 Report Posted November 4 1 hour ago, karna11 said: A stocks luu jaraguthunnyii ? almost all tech stocks. Quote
paaparao Posted November 4 Report Posted November 4 37 minutes ago, krishnaaa said: Tightening was going on in 2022. Right now Fed is in an easing cycle and 7.5 Trillion dollars are sitting outside waiting for a dip. And the interest on this money keeps on decreasing as interest rate gets cut. This would force that money to come back. Margin interest also keeps going down...forcing people to get more margin. Just don't be in companies that get affected the first when layoffs happen....like restaurant stocks or luxury goods. yaa. 2022 crash was mainly due to over valuation of companies, high capex due to over hiring, Fed tightened all credit flow, Fed increased interest rates. now fed is decreasing all interest rates, giving free liquidity for banks. but slight problem is huge money is invested in AI, Robotics, Self driving where human jobs will be cut. so open ai IPO ki vochi AI bubble burst ayithe gaani ee problem aagadu. Quote
human1234 Posted November 4 Author Report Posted November 4 4 hours ago, karna11 said: Enti dhei meaning Insiders are generally management of a company like CEOs, etc. Investors who have more than 10% of a company stocks are also considered insiders. These Insiders are selling stocks because they might be assuming the stocks are over valued. It's is generally an indication of a bubble. But when bubbles might burst no one knows. It might never burst. It might go sideways for few years until valuations makes sense. Also investors have no place to invest other than stocks. So the bubble keeps increasing and everyone thinks they are Warren Buffet in this bull market. Even Warren Buffet is not buying his stocks. He is selling stocks like Apple and is sitting on lot of cash Quote
krishnaaa Posted November 4 Report Posted November 4 24 minutes ago, paaparao said: yaa. 2022 crash was mainly due to over valuation of companies, high capex due to over hiring, Fed tightened all credit flow, Fed increased interest rates. now fed is decreasing all interest rates, giving free liquidity for banks. but slight problem is huge money is invested in AI, Robotics, Self driving where human jobs will be cut. so open ai IPO ki vochi AI bubble burst ayithe gaani ee problem aagadu. AI needs to become cheaper to sustain. And it would start with reduction in Nvidia margins once AI data centers are overbuilt. This would lead to broadening. I dont see an all out crash. But some companies would have reduction in valuations. Quote
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