Another survey goes Cong way

[koustubbhargav]

Another survey goes Cong way   

Hyderabad: With just two days to go for the first phase of the elections, a pre-poll survey done by Nielsen-ORG Marg for NTV reported that the Congress would win 144-158 seats with a 33.5% of the vote share. The four parties in the Mahakutami were tipped to get 90-112 seats.

The survey was done during April5-10, after the TDP brought out its manifesto and declared its signature cash transfer scheme.

The most notable finding of the survey was the collapse of the TRS and a strong showing by the Praja Rajyam. The separatist Telangana party was predicted to receive only 3.5% of the vote share considering the state overall and 11% in Telangana. The Praja Rajyam was tipped to take about 22% of the vote for a seat haul of 32-38 seats. Surprisingly, the Praja Rajyam would do better than the TRS in Telangana with a 19% vote share in the region.

What these findings indicate is that the TRS would weaken alarmingly from its 6.7% vote share in 2004, then in alliance with the Congress, to 3.5% now in alliance with the TDP. The survey did not give a projection of the TRS seats but did so for the Praja Rajyam in Telangana, 5-8 seats. That would point to an extremely poor seat return for the TRS, which would seriously handicap the TDP’s hopes of emerging in the reckoning for power.

The TDP’s other two allies, CPI and CPM were forecast to receive 2% of the vote, whichis consistent with the performance of the two Left parties over the last two decades.

Previous surveys have indicated that the TDP’s best hope of wresting power was for the Mahakutami to do extremely well in Telangana, in order to establish a lead that would offset its lesser returns from coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema.

That hope may be belied, if the NTV survey is any indication. The survey held out a return of 45-60 for the grand alliance in Telangana and 40-48 for the Congress. A Congress tally of more than 40 is bad news for the TDP, as other surveys have showed. The NTV returns would indicate that the TDP is badly constrained by its hitch-up with the TRS.

The survey, as expected, put the Congress well ahead with 66-78 in coastal Andhra and 32-36 in Rayalaseema. The relevant numbers for the Mahakutami were 28-35 in coastal Andhra and 14-18 in Rayalaseema.

The TDP’s losses are likely to accrue to the Praja Rajyam in coastal Andhra, particularly in the latter’s heartland districts of East and West Godavari, Krishna and Guntur. The party was projected to get 22-30 seats in this region, seriously denting the TDP’s tally.

Given the error margin of + or – 3%, the survey places the three major formation in a photo finish. An adjustment of even 1% of the vote either way would make a difference of more than a score seats.

Seen in the context of the other surveys done in Andhra Pradesh by various agencies since the beginning of this year, the NTV returns fall into a consistent pattern with the Congress in the lead and the Mahakutami nearly winded in its pursuit. Any further gains by the PRP would possibly cause much more damage to the TDP.