Chiru helps TDP to sweep, Cong goes under

[kingmakers]

With only a day left for the second-phase electioneering to end for 140 Assembly and 20 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, the main Opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) seems to be breezing ahead of the ruling Congress in the crucial belt of East and West Godavari and Krishna districts of coastal Andhra.

Just as the region is a mix of fertile delta and dry uplands, it is also a melting pot of the Kammas, Kapus, Setti Balija and Scheduled Castes. And its importance lies in the fact that it accounts for 50 Assembly and seven Lok Sabha seats. Though initially one thought the region would witness a clean sweep by Telugu superstar Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) as he hails from West Godavari district which has pockets of concentration of his Kapu caste, the TDP’s surge looks certain now.

The TDP owes its apparent gain to PRP’s dent into the traditional Kapu vote bank of the Congress. The TDP, which had a stronghold in the region but was routed by the Congress in 2004, now looks set for a comeback. The Congress wave here had helped it win 44 of the 50 Assembly seats.

But as per ground realities now, the TDP seems to be comfortably placed in at least 23 Assembly seats. The Congress has an edge on 10 and PRP on four. A tough fight is on the cards on nine seats, with the CPI likely to win one. The entire electoral battle in this region, however, is revolving around the caste factor and personality cults, with no major single issue dominating the campaign. With the caste factor at play, social tensions have occurred (many small-scale and at least one major one in the Konaseema region on Sunday).

Of the seven Lok Sabha seats in the three districts, the three main parties seem to be having mixed fortunes. In Rajahmundry, in the battle of two yesteryear film heroes, TDP’s Murlimohan is better placed against PRP’s Krishnam Raju. In Amalapuram (SC), Harshakumar of the Congress, Dr Varalakshmi of the TDP and Pramila Devi of the PRP, all from Mala sub-caste of Dalits, are locked in a keen battle. In Kakinada, Union Minister Pallamraju looks likely to retain the seat for Congress.

Both the TDP candidates in West Godavari and Narsapuram, M Venkateshwara Rao and T Vijaylakshmi respectively, have an edge. Their counterpart from the party V Krishna is locked in a keen fight with sitting Congress MP L Rajagopal in Vijayawada. PRP candidate Ch Ramachandraiah, brought in from Kadapah, stands no chance. The Congress, which had won all the seven Lok Sabha seats in this belt, is likely to lose three to four seats.

While the East Godavari and West Godavari districts have 19 and 15 Assembly constituencies respectively, Krishna district has 16 constituencies.

In East Godavari, the TDP seems ahead on nine seats, the Congress on three and PRP on four, with the remaining three set to witness a tough fight. In West Godavari too, if the TDP has an edge on at least eight seats, the PRP is ahead in two and the Congress in three. A tough fight is likely on the two remaining seats. In Krishna, the home district of TDP founder late NT Ramarao, the party seems set to win six seats, Congress four, with the PRP and the CPI ahead in one each. Four other seats would have a neck-and-neck fight.

The PRP’s discomfiture in West Godavari is reflected in the fact that Chiranjeevi himself is in serious trouble on his home turf in Palacole. With the media reporting about his dim prospects, Chiranjeevi rushed to Palacole. He is spending the last two days of his campaigning there and conducting road shows. His Kapu tag has become a major problem both for him and his party, given the community’s troubled relations with the powerful Kammas, especially in Krishna district and with the numerically strong BCs and Scheduled Castes in East and West Godavari districts.

The war for supremacy between the Kammas and Kapus in the past had led to the worst-ever caste riots in the region in late 1980s when, during NTR’s regime, a popular Kapu leader Mohana Ranga was killed by a rival group. The people have not forgotten this and the statues of Ranga in interior villages on the borders of Krishna and West Godavari district stand as a grim reminder of the past. Still, those like Ch Satyanrayana (a Kapu) in Prattipadu in East Godavari district vouch his support for Chiranjeevi. “It is for the first time that a political leader and a party have emerged from our ranks. Kapus want to see Annayya (Chiranjeevi) as the Chief Minister.”

In some pockets of West Godavari, Congress’s woes increased as a strong and resourceful Kamma leader and former Minister M Venkateshwara Rao quit the party and joined the TDP. Despite being a Kamma, his family was with the Congress for last 30 years. He is now the TDP candidate from Eluru and helping TDP candidates in several Assembly constituencies.

Besides the caste factor, careful selection of candidates, anti-incumbency against sitting members, internal trouble in Congress and populist promises of Chandrababu Naidu — especially the cash transfer scheme — too have infiltrated the public mind.

http://www.dailypioneer.com/171043/Chiru-helps-TDP-to-sweep-Cong-goes-under.html

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