Microstrategy Analysis On How To Defeat Barcelona Football Team

[pinky123]

People are visual creatures. We recognize patterns, identify trends, and spot outliers much more easily when we see data conveyed though graphs instead of tables. Despite this, a lot of data is still presented in tabular form.

Sports statistics are a great example of this. While figures are fun for fans to throw around, alone they aren’t useful to coaches and players analyzing their opponents. To demonstrate the power of data visualization and just in time for MicroStrategy’s 2013 World Conference in Barcelona, as part of a three-part series, I’m going to analyze data from every FC Barcelona Primera Liga game starting from the 2002-2003 season to offer suggestions on how opposing teams can better their odds against the Catalans.

FC Barcelona is one of the biggest soccer clubs in the world, with the crop of players from the past few seasons being regarded by many as the best team of all time. Given the aura of invincibility that surrounds the Catalans, how does a team go about beating FC Barcelona?

[img]http://www.microstrategy.com/Strategy/media/MS/blog/FC-Barcelona-Record-by-Halftime-Result.png[/img]


Initially I wanted to know if there was a strategically important section of the game that determines the final outcome. Figure 1 illustrates the impact halftime results have on the outcome of FC Barcelona’s games. The first thing that stands out is that when Barcelona is up at halftime, they win an overwhelming majority of their games, so opponents down at the half historically have a slim chance of making a comeback for a win. A second observation is that when FC Barcelona is down at the half, the opposing teams have won little more than 50% of the matches. Based on these two findings, a team’s best chance to win is to take an early lead, but that alone won’t guarantee a victory as FC Barcelona has escaped defeat at a very high rate even when they’re down at the half.

Ironically, one of the most common strategies adopted against FC Barcelona over the years has been to hunker down on defense and try to hold off the likes of Ronaldinho and Messi for as long as possible. Teams are averse to attacking immediately because it leaves them vulnerable to a deadly first half disadvantage. Figure 1 suggests that it’s worth the risk, giving opposing teams the best chance to pull off an upset.

A first-half lead is critical, but what style of play will give a team the best chance of beating FC Barcelona? Make sure to look for Part II on Monday to find out!

Source: [url="http://www.microstrategy.com/blog/july-2013/beating-barcelona-a-data-driven-analysis-pt1"]Link[/url]

[Silver_mani]

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[aragorn]

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[mukunda]

[pinky123]

In Friday's post I established that a first-half lead is critical, but beyond that, what style of play gives a team the best chance of beating FC Barcelona? To address this question I mapped out every league game from the 2004-2005 season to the present on a scatter plot to show the number of fouls committed and yellow cards received. I then colored each individual game by the match outcome to highlight any emerging pattern.

[img]http://www.microstrategy.com/Strategy/media/MS/blog/FC-Barcelona-Yellow-Cards-and-Fouls-Committed(1)_4.png[/img] [img]http://i40.tinypic.com/2ikef61.png[/img]


Figure 1 shows how FCBarcelona’s style of play during a game affects the outcome of the match. The yellow and red bubbles, representing ties and losses respectively, appear more frequently once FC Barcelona goes over 16 fouls and four yellow cards. More specifically, ties occur most often in matches where FC goes over 16 fouls, and FC losses are more likely in games where they receive more yellow cards.

Figure 2 shows how the opponent’s yellow cards and fouls correlate with Barcelona wins (blue), ties (yellow), and losses (red). The trend here is reversed, but less pronounced. When opposing teams foul more than 16 times in a game, Barcelona starts to tie more frequently, and FC losses become more prevalent when the opposing teams commit more than 22 fouls.

The scatter plots suggest that when playing FC Barcelona, teams are best off when they make the game a physical affair, forcing both sides to foul and rack up yellow cards. For example, in the game played against Real Madrid in February 2013, FC Barcelona dominated possession, but ultimately was defeated at the end of a very physical battle. Real Madrid committed 21 fouls and received four yellow cards, but more importantly Barcelona committed 19 fouls, received five yellow cards, and one red card. Perhaps the inability to play a tougher style without losing composure is one of FC Barcelona’s bigger weaknesses, making them vulnerable to psychological tactics.

Playing tough and making it a physical battle is important, but which specific elements of FC Barcelona’s game should opposing teams focus on to concede fewer goals and score more? Tomorrow, Part 3 will take a look at this question and complete the optimal strategy to beat FC Barcelona.

Source: [url="http://www.microstrategy.com/blog/july-2013/beating-barcelona-a-data-driven-analysis-pt2"]Link[/url]
Live Dashboard: [url="https://cloud3.microstrategy.com/MicroStrategy/servlet/mstrWeb?RRUid=1605075&authMode=8&connMode=8&aliveDenyGuest=true&evt=3135&src=mstrWeb.3135&documentID=40C0BE4011E2E32E000000802FB74F4E&currentViewMedia=8&server=na01lisp05c101&project=RedRocket&port=10121"]Link[/url]

[mukunda]

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[Piscop]

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[Silver_mani]

[mukunda]

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[pinky123]

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[SudhirKumar]

[mukunda]

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[Silver_mani]

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[mukunda]

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[jersey babai]

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