Phailin Is Half The Size Of India And Strengthening Quickly

[dalapathi]

[b][size=5]An atmospheric beast is forming in the Bay of Bengal and heading straight for India. Cyclone Phailin—pronounced [i]pie-leen[/i]; it’s a Thai word for “sapphire”—has exploded from tropical storm strength to potentially the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane.[/size][/b]
Meteorologists can’t precisely determine Phailin’s current strength because there are no “[url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hunters"][u][color=#0000ff]hurricane hunter[/color][/u][/url]“ aircraft taking direct measurements of storms in the Indian Ocean basin. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a Hawaii-based forecasting outpost of the US Navy, says Phailin is undergoing “extreme rapid intensification.”
While strengthening, the storm has grown to nearly half the size of India itself (image via [url="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=fy2d&channel=ir2&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash"][u][color=#0000ff]University of Wisconsin[/color][/u][/url]):
[img]http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/screen-shot-2013-10-11-at-7-24-49-am.png?w=768&h=768[/img]
The storm’s growth, both in size and in strength, is expected to continue until landfall. The latest forecast from JTWC shows Phailin hitting land on Saturday near Brahmapur, India, at the strength of a category 5 hurricane:
[img]http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/io0213-3.gif?w=1024&h=853[/img]
That forecast may, in fact, be conservative. Waters over the Bay of Bengal are exceptionally warm right now—[url="http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX0946.shtml"][u][color=#0000ff]more than 28[b]°[/b]C[/color][/u][/url], which is the generally agreed upon threshold above which rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is most likely.
The last storm of this magnitude to hit India was the [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Odisha_cyclone"][u][color=#0000ff]1999 Odisha cyclone[/color][/u][/url], which killed more than 10,000 people and caused $4.5 billion in damage. That storm hit the same general area that Phailin appears to be headed, at about Phailin’s predicted strength.
[size=5][b]India’s official meteorological service has had trouble keeping up with the quickly strengthening storm. In the agency’s [url="http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf"][u][color=#0000ff]latest official update[/color][/u][/url], Phailin’s current intensity was listed as 50 mph (80 kph), weaker than current satellite estimates. That discrepancy could lead to local confusion and an underestimating of the storm’s true threat.[/b]
[b]For example, the predicted landfall intensity commonly quoted in local media on Thursday of 105-115 mph (175-185 kph) was perhaps 40 mph (70 kph) too low, according to the latest JTWC forecast and my own assessment. Also, the government’s [url="http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/surge.htm"][u][color=#0000ff]official storm surge forecast[/color][/u][/url] shows a maximum value at landfall of a little over 3 feet (1 meter). The 1999 cyclone produced a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters), a value that is not impossible with Phailin.[/b]
Still, India’s government has begun [url="http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Odisha/Cyclone-alert-Odisha-cancels-employees-leaves/Article1-1132950.aspx"][u][color=#0000ff]mobilizing preparations[/color][/u][/url], such as the cancellation of Puja holiday celebrations and the activation of state disaster rapid action forces. More than a quarter million people [url="http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/11/india-cyclone-phailin-odisha-andhra-prad-idINDEE99A00V20131011"][u][color=#0000ff]have been moved to higher ground[/color][/u][/url].
[b]Should the storm maintain its current strength—or strengthen even further—India could be facing a true catastrophe. A worst case scenario would have Phailin tracking slightly eastward of its current forecasted track, toward Kolkata and the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh, which is home to tens of millions of people living just a few meters above sea level.[/b][/size]
Storm surge and freshwater flooding from heavy rains are generally the biggest threats from landfalling cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region, home to the [url="http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/deadliest-cyclone-history-bangladesh-20130605?pageno=2"][u][color=#0000ff]most deadly storms in modern history[/color][/u][/url]. Two reasons why Phailin may pack a particularly hefty punch: an [url="http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm"][u][color=#0000ff]ample finish to the 2013 monsoon season[/color][/u][/url] has saturated soils along India’s coastline, aggravating Phailin’s flooding potential. Plus, a [url="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2549"][u][color=#0000ff]just-completed ‘eyewall replacement cycle’[/color][/u][/url] could act to further grow Phailin’s size and extent of storm surge damage.
In the absence of direct measurements, meteorologists use satellites to estimate the strength of storms like Phailin. One [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique"][u][color=#0000ff]reliable technique[/color][/u][/url] shows Phailin is continuing to strengthen and may have already achieved the status of a “super cyclone,” the highest on India’s scale and the equivalent of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.
At one point (2 a.m. Friday, India time), [url="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/02B-list.txt"][u][color=#0000ff]one satellite-based measure[/color][/u][/url] of Phailin’s strength estimated the storm’s central pressure at 910.2 millibars, with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph). If those numbers were verified by official forecast agencies, they would place Phailin on par with 2005′s Hurricane Katrina, and break [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones#North_Indian_Ocean"][u][color=#0000ff]the record[/color][/u][/url] for the most intense cyclone in Indian Ocean recorded history.

[img]http://image.weather.com/images/sat/indian_oce_sat_720x486.jpg[/img][img]http://image.weather.com/images/sat/india_sat_600x405.jpg[/img][img]http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-01_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg[/img]

[dalapathi]

Idhi 1999 lo Orissa ni thaakina super cyclone track
[url="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/1999_Indian_cyclone_05B_track.png"][img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/13/1999_Indian_cyclone_05B_track.png/800px-1999_Indian_cyclone_05B_track.png[/img][/url]

Idhi Phailin dhi
[url="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a1/Phailin_2013_track.png"][img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/Phailin_2013_track.png/800px-Phailin_2013_track.png[/img][/url]

[dalapathi]

[img]http://s.imwx.com/dru/2013/10/de35b6c1-9685-42e0-acc9-ec2c7ed2d0f0_650x366.jpg[/img]

[ahimsavaadhi1]

[color=#333333][font=Georgia,]Cyclone Phailin 'may be worse than Katrina' that hit US in 2005[/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]The weather office may be underestimating the severity of a cyclone which is hurtling towards the east coast, a meteorologist warned on Friday, adding that it could be worse than [/size][/font][/color][url="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/Hurricane-Katrina"]Hurricane Katrina[/url][color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4] which devastated parts of the United States in 2005. [/size][/font][/color]

[url="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/Cyclone-Phailin"]Cyclone Phailin[/url][color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4] is forecast to hit the coast between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Paradip in Odisha late on Saturday with a maximum wind speed of 220kmph (135mph), the [/size][/font][/color][url="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/India-Meteorological-Department"]India Meteorological Department[/url][color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4] (IMD) said in its latest bulletin. [/size][/font][/color]
[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]However, both London-based Tropical Storm and the US navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre forecast winds reaching 315kmph (195mph) on landfall, classifying Phailin as a Category 5 storm — the most powerful . [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]"Phailin is already worse than what the IMD is forecasting. A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity on par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the United States," said Eric Holthaus, meteorologist for Quartz, a US-based online magazine which covers global economy-related issues. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]"Everything I know as a meteorologist tells me this is the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane — among the strongest on earth in 2013. That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean." [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Hurricane Katrina hit the US Gulf coast on August 29, 2005, killing more than 1,800 people, driving 2.16 million from their homes and causing $75 billion of damage. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are common at this time of year, often causing deaths, mass evacuations of coastal villages, power and telecoms disruptions and widespread damage to crops and property in eastern India and Bangladesh. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Some experts have compared Phailin with a super cyclone in 1999 that killed 10,000 people when it battered the coast of Odisha with wind speeds reaching 300kmph (185mph). [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Weather authorities were reluctant to make comparisons with Katrina and the 1999 cyclone, dismissing reports that Phailin is half the size of India. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]"It is very difficult to compare two cyclones and their possible impacts. They are different entities and their crossing point along the coast matters a lot. At the same time, there is a resemblance in terms of intensity, so there is some similarity with the 1999 cyclone," IMD director general LS Rathore told a news conference. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]The cyclone is pretty voluminous, but it's not half the size of the country and its radius keeps increasing and decreasing." [/size][/font][/color]

[b]Millions affected[/b][color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4] [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Holthaus said he was not familiar with India's level of disaster preparedness but was concerned that any underestimation of the storm's intensity could put lives at risk. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]"I feel that IMD's underestimate of the strength and impact of this storm is potentially tragic and could catch many millions of people off guard," he said. "Anything short of a full-scale motivation may leave people stranded in flood waters. The highest possible precautions should be taken immediately." [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]The cyclone could disrupt the lives of millions, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) run by the United Nations and the European Commission said. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]"Up to 6.1 million people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition, 47,000 people are living in coastal areas below 5 metres above sea level and can be affected by storm surge," the GDACS website said. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Authorities began moving thousands of people living along Odisha's coastline to shelters early on Friday, as weather officials warned of extensive damage to homes, power and telecoms disruptions and flooding. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]The local government cancelled workers' holidays during the popular Hindu festival of Dussehra to help prepare for the storm, and the Army, Navy and Air Force have been put on standby for rescue and relief operations. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Rations are being prepositioned in cyclone shelters, schools and other buildings on higher ground, control rooms set up and fishing suspended. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]Aid workers said the authorities' level of disaster preparedness and early warnings looked satisfactory. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=#3F3F3F][font=georgia][size=4]"There has been a phenomenal change in disaster management in Odisha since the super cyclone in 1999. The action the leadership has taken is exactly what is needed," said Unni Krishnan, head of disaster response for Plan International.[/size][/font][/color]

[JollyBoy]

Matter chadvaledu kani aa bomma chustutune bayamestundi..

Hope there will be no bloodshed this time

[Maximus]

[img]https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-vt1zWUG_MKA/ThhxFvL5EXI/AAAAAAAABu4/otoEw_cKRKA/s167/2dv7vy9.gif[/img]..Devuda ee vinasanani tappinchu...prajalani rakshinchu....
ppl who believe in GOD pray..