Now evidence recession lies ahead is mounting - Morgan Stanely report

[Spartan]

t was almost exactly two months ago when we first saw one of the market’s most reliable recession indicators turn negative. I thought it was premature then for investors to worry the economy was weakening, but now I think it’s high time.

The indicator I’m referring to is the yield curve, a chart of Treasury yields from shortest term to longest. In March we saw it invert—meaning long-term rates dipped below short-term rates—for the first time since 2007. Then I cautioned investors not to overreact since I thought Federal Reserve policy swings could have created temporary distortions and weaker economic data might be transitory.

Now evidence recession lies ahead is mounting. I think investors shouldn’t panic and should stick to their long-term asset allocation plan. But opportunities may arise in hard hit sectors like financials, which could rebound if the Fed starts lowering short-term rates and the yield curve rights itself.

[Spartan]

The stock market and economic outlook in the United States are “deteriorating,” according to an analysis from one of Wall Street’s top investment banks.

Renewed trade tensions and a slump in economic data — ranging from falling durable goods and capital spending to a downshift in the services sector — has put U.S. profits and economic growth at risk, Morgan Stanley warned Tuesday.

“Recent data points suggest US earnings and economic risk is greater than most investors may think,” wrote Michael Wilson, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

Specifically, the stock strategist highlighted a recent survey from financial data firm IHS Markit that showed manufacturing activity fell to a nine-year low in May. That report also revealed a “notable slowdown” in the U.S. services sector, a key area for an American economy characterized by huge job gains in health care and business services.

_{Source: Morgan Stanley Cross Asset Research}

Many recent reports reflect April data, “which means it weakened before the re-escalation of trade tensions,” Wilson continued. “In addition, numerous leading companies may be starting to throw in the towel on the second half rebound--something we have been expecting but we believe many investors are not.”

Wilson was one of the most bearish stock strategists last year, defending his initial S&P 500 call of 2,750 for year-end 2018 without adjusting it throughout the year. By the end of the year, his call was the most accurate of any strategist tracked by CNBC.

He’s stood by his gloomy case for 2019, often warning that investors could be caught in a “rolling bear market ” for the next several years. The market has thus far outpaced Wilson’s models for 2019, with the S&P 500 up 11.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 8.6% year to date.

The stock market sold off Tuesday, adding to steep losses for the month of May. The Dow fell 237 points and the S&P dropped 0.8% during the session; they are down 4.6% and 4.8% this month, respectively.

[WigsandThighs]

Vaathcare... CBN katticchina bramaravathi ki poyi bathikestham antunna thammullu, maadhe rajyam antunna teddies...dhora susukuntunnadu antunna langas 

[VadaGaali]

@Anta Assamey

[tacobell fan]

Here.. I posted this but lot of people ass kissed to this.

 

[tacobell fan]

This exact statement by him.. and it's June.

 

[Spartan]

Just now, tacobell fan said:

Here.. I posted this but lot of people ass kissed to this.

 

adi March 19th report kada..

this one is from MS...May 29th.

[tacobell fan]

1 minute ago, Spartan said:

adi March 19th report kada..

this one is from MS...May 29th.

he predicted if we don't enter recession by June it will be a record. 

[Android_Halwa]

Paisal patukuni kusondi vaa...

[Anta Assamey]

2 hours ago, tacobell fan said:

he predicted if we don't enter recession by June it will be a record. 

Already June lo ne kada vundi .. Enter ayyama leda... 

[tacobell fan]

4 minutes ago, Anta Assamey said:

Already June lo ne kada vundi .. Enter ayyama leda... 

akkada graph lo dip kanipinchatleda anna, Tsunami vachinappudu adi vachinattu telvad. idi kuda anthe

[Anta Assamey]

2 minutes ago, tacobell fan said:

akkada graph lo dip kanipinchatleda anna, Tsunami vachinappudu adi vachinattu telvad. idi kuda anthe

Job lu kapadukovali anamata...

[DrBeta]

Last month has been great on stock market, not sure what this is about. 

[dasara_bullodu]

There is scope for growth ... the powers of west cost need to leverage by establishing in the east and that is gonna happen... Bezos is buying real estate in NYC it will be the last hunt for Tech. Once that is done recession starts...

[jefferson1]

okka vela recession vasthe.... rates taggutayaa?

 

banking rates..ippudu chala high unnai kada