Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

[Hitman]

YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

The market’s most closely watched part of the yield curve inverted today, and if its record over the last half-century is any indicator, the U.S. could be headed for a recession soon.

Shortly after 6 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.

Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.

For over a year after that, the yield curve fluttered in and out of inversion. The last inversion, as measured by U.S. Treasury data collected by the St. Louis Fed, was in 2007.

 

The spread between the 10-year and the 2-year Treasuries over the last five recessions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

More

Concerns over a global slowdown, in addition to uncertainties from the U.S.-China trade war, have weighed heavily on longer-term U.S. Treasury yields. Since the new year, the return on the longer-term 30-year Treasury has fallen from a high of 3.12% in March to 2.08% on August 14.

Bond yields across the board have come down over that same time period, as investors move funds from more aggressive-yielding securities into risk-off assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Yields came down precipitously in August amid a mix of global concerns: President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on China, an Argentinian election renewed worry over its debt crisis, and protests escalated in Hong Kong.

Morgan Stanley wrote August 12 that unless economic data or U.S. equity earnings turn around, “the bear is alive and kicking.” Their note adds that investors should be careful about equity markets, recommending staples and utilities stocks amid recession risks.

“Growth stocks look more vulnerable than defensives,” Morgan Stanley wrote.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007-102034083.html

[tacobell fan]

Chinnu  ( @Prince_Fan) extensive analysis chesadu already. This is Hoax antunna @kevinUsa

[tacobell fan]

*U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD BELOW 2-YEAR RATE FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2007 The last three times this happened, U.S. recessions soon followed.

[Hitman]

4 minutes ago, tacobell fan said:

Chinnu  ( @Prince_Fan) extensive analysis chesadu already. This is Hoax antunna @kevinUsa

ఒక్కసారి investment account చూస్తే తెలుస్తది Real or Hoax ..

[Scada]

what is the effect of this for us

[Hitman]

Just now, Scada said:

what is the effect of this for us

Nothing at this time . 

[r2d2]

"Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005"

 

Don't you worry.. our beloved Thaatha will tweet "Red is beautiful.. look at that.. everything is turning Red..."  and blah blah blah...

[tacobell fan]

2 minutes ago, Hitman said:

ఒక్కసారి investment account చూస్తే తెలుస్తది Real or Hoax ..

based on past history, it takes a min of 2+ years to fully recover from the recession effect if at all happens. 

[tacobell fan]

Just now, r2d2 said:

Don't you worry.. our beloved Thaatha will tweet "Red is beautiful.. look at that.. everything is turning Red..."  and blah blah blah...

Our economy is brighter and shinier than every before. No one in the world does it better than YOU! 

[reality]

2 minutes ago, r2d2 said:

"Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005"

 

Don't you worry.. our beloved Thaatha will tweet "Red is beautiful.. look at that.. everything is turning Red..."  and blah blah blah...

Ilanti pappu statements ki em thakkuva ledhu...

[xano917]

5 minutes ago, Scada said:

what is the effect of this for us

No office from tomorrow 

[Scada]

Just now, xano917 said:

No office from tomorrow 

😂

[tacobell fan]

Just now, reality said:

Ilanti pappu statements ki em thakkuva ledhu...

It's a plot from Sleepy Joe and Crooked Hilary. NO COLLUSION

[desiboys]

Recession radu man inko 2 years varaku. Thatha next 4 years malla rule chesthadu.

[Hitman]

3 minutes ago, reality said:

Ilanti pappu statements ki em thakkuva ledhu...

తాత ఏమి చేసిండు వయ్యా .. when బామ tenure itself fed started pumping too much money into markets , you can call it bailout package or financing small businesses , low interest lending etc etc ..millions of new business entities have been created and existing busniesses expanded way bigger than what market needs in reality . This time bubble happens in this area not like housing market bubble ..jobs will be lost for sure but not like 2008. తాత could do nothing to stop this cycle .