Upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen

[sureshkonda]

When the damage the coronavirus inflicts on the U.S. jobs market becomes clearer, it could be unlike anything the country has ever seen.

Judging by a host of forecasts from economists, the avalanche of furloughs will easily break the record for most in a single month.

Upcoming weekly jobless claims will shatter the standards set even during the worst points of the financial crisis and the early-1980s recession. Those numbers are expected to be bad, in fact, that the Trump administration, according to several media reports, has asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.

While the headline unemployment rate is highly unlikely to approach the 24.9% during the Great Depression, it very well could be the highest in almost 40 years, something unthinkable for a jobs market that had been on fire as recently as February.

 

 

 

Job losses will be counted not in the thousands or even hundreds of thousands, but rather in the millions. Whether the total count from this recession ends up breaking records from previous periods is uncertain, but it looks like a good bet that if nothing else, the number for April will outpace by a large margin any single month in U.S. history for a drop in nonfarm payrolls.

Five million in April alone?

The worst month for job losses during the financial crisis was 800,00 in March 2009.

Some forecasts see April quintupling that or worse. Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million.

“There’s just so much that we don’t know about how long the disruption to economic activity related to the containment of the virus will be. That does make forecasting these things very difficult,” said Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “By the time you get to the April payroll number, which may be right at the deepest level of contraction, yes, those numbers are plausible certainly.”

Because of the way the Labor Department conducts its sampling, the March nonfarm payrolls report probably won’t reflect the worst of the layoffs. Where those numbers will show up is in upcoming weekly jobless claims figures.

Next Thursday’s report alone could show claims going from 281,000 in this week’s report to 2.25 million, according to Goldman Sachs. Bank of America says it will be even worse, with a number more like 3 million.

Looking further ahead to April, Lawson said a drop of 500,000 for the month “is not an unreasonable starting point.” Other forecasters, though, see a far gloomier picture.

[DaatarBabu]

Na laddulodi teeste teesi d€ngandi.. Roju anthuntadi inthuntadi anude... Deenikanna Corona ee better 

[paracetamol_bleach]

18 minutes ago, DaatarBabu said:

Na laddulodi teeste teesi d€ngandi.. Roju anthuntadi inthuntadi anude... Deenikanna Corona ee better 

Sure 

[phoeniix]

But there is still recruitment happening in IT. Few sectors are impacted  like travel ,hotels etc . worry avalsina pani ledu 

be positive and stay positive . Mind karaab cheskoddu