Markets expect depression-level job losses, but the duration of the shutdowns is a much bigger worry

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Stocks and bonds had a relatively muted response to the March employment report, which was far worse than forecast but barely reflected the unprecedented collapse of the labor market and the loss of millions of jobs from the coronavirus shutdowns.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 701,000 in March, seven times what was forecast, but just a fraction of the actual jobs lost, which already have shown up in 10 million unemployment claims in the second half of March.

What the March employment report does show is the loss of 459,000 jobs in the leisure industry, showing how quickly the restaurant and hotel industry pared back staff, even ahead of major state shutdown orders.

 “We all know things are terrible. We all know millions of people are losing their jobs,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group. “We had this sharp decline in anticipation of this news. The next batch of news we don’t know is what is the duration of this and what is going to happen in May. We hope at the end of April that we are looking at a slow reopening.” —Patti Domm