IIM study predicts 1.5 lakh Covid-19 cases by May first week as ‘result of Tablighi event’

[Mirage]

IIM-Rohtak research team uses mathematical models to conclude coronavirus cases have increased by nearly 3 times in India after Tablighi Jamaat event in March.

 

 

[Mirage]

New Delhi: The Indian Institute of Management (IIM) in Rohtak has predicted, using mathematical models, that the Tablighi Jamaat congregation held at its headquarters in Delhi from 13-15 March will increase coronavirus cases “exponentially” — with Delhi and Mumbai to emerge as the most vulnerable locations.

“We predict… that the number of Covid-19 cases will increase exponentially in India to approximately 13,000 cases by 15 April 2020 and to more than 1,50,000 cases by the first week of May 2020,” said a report prepared by a research team at IIM-Rohtak.

“This rapid increase in cases is a result of the Tablighi Jamaat event and we propose that any such event in the future will be severely detrimental for the health of the people and may pose a serious threat to the growth and well-being of the nation,” the report stated.

 

The research team, led by IIM Director Dheeraj Sharma, had professors Dr Amol Singh and Dr Abhay Pant and a research scholar as members.

“This study takes into account the fact that the lockdown would be removed on April 14 2020,” Sharma told ThePrint.

“The government should play a proactive role to condemn any such congregation and should mandatorily lock down such places to avoid proliferation of Covid-19 cases,” the report said.

 

The team analysed data using a mathematical forecasting model involving two exponential functions. Such models have been used recently to predict disease spread in a given region.

“Using the data from covid19india.org website and employing a regression model, it was proffered that the coronavirus cases have multiplied approximately three times post the Tablighi Jamaat event,” said the report, which was accessed by this author. 

 

“The detailed forecast post the Tablighi Jamaat event of Covid-19 cases across India are presented in Table 1 below… The predicted cases have been compared with the actual cases and the analysis showed approx. 93% accuracy on an average for all the data.”

[mustang302]

Chala choosam ituvanti models antunna Fauci tatha..!

[r2d2]

these days we need to take  IIM studies with a pinch of salt...

[Kool_SRG]

1 minute ago, r2d2 said:

these days we need to take  IIM studies with a pinch of salt...

We shall LTT this thread by Mid may...Seriously doubt this.

[kathanayaka]

edo run chestaru lera stats models ee faltoo gallu..bcoz IIM manam edo matter undani vinalsi vastadi...

[AndhraneedSCS]

IIM valla talent chuddam in a month

[Mirage]

9 minutes ago, Kool_SRG said:

We shall LTT this thread by Mid may...Seriously doubt this.

Yes. these predictions could go wrong as well

[Mirage]

12 minutes ago, mustang302 said:

Chala choosam ituvanti models antunna Fauci tatha..!

Yeah.. US lo 100k - 240k deaths nundi 60k antunaaru ipudu. 

[Mirage]

13 minutes ago, AndhraneedSCS said:

IIM valla talent chuddam in a month

Numbers based on the consideration that lockdown would end on April 14th

[jabbala_subbbaraju]

19 minutes ago, Kool_SRG said:

We shall LTT this thread by Mid may...Seriously doubt this.

They said they took into account Lockdown will be lifted on April 14... which doesn't seem to be the case... model will obviously fail...

my regular btech guy prediction... india will be in the range of 45k by mid may

[reality]

Also build a model for candle light gatherings and Ghanta bhajana gatherings... 

Such a morons.

[Kool_SRG]

4 minutes ago, jabbala_subbbaraju said:

They said they took into account Lockdown will be lifted on April 14...

Ok may they could have put a analysis if the lock down gets extended...

Also we are Ignoring a point that now many of states have started Rapid testing from this week so cases could scale up but also there is good sign on increase in no of who are getting cured/discharged as well... So my feel it shouldn't scale to 45 K as predicted lets see...

[Kool_SRG]

2 minutes ago, reality said:

Also build a model for candle light gatherings and Ghanta bhajana gatherings... 

Such a morons.

Adhi cheste entha periginidi cheyyaka pothe emavunu ani kuda veyyalantaava...

[Vaampire]

Thank you peaceful bros