What will happen to countries when median age of a country reaches 50+

[DummyVariable]

9 minutes ago, narsy said:

encouraging population growth? how do you think it should happen? govts offer to raise their children?

because people who chose to have children are literally among the dumbest people in a society. thankfully the kids turn out well sometimes.

Yes, but there is nothing wrong in being dumb. They are all support structures. Their actions help other outliers to prosper. 

[PilliBeta]

2 minutes ago, narsy said:

But is there a thing called 'natural flow of population'? has it ever been quantified?

I only know of replacement level female fertility, which is put at 1.7

but US has been the magnet for immigrants for close to 3 decades now. It receivers overwhelming percentage of migrants around the world.. like almost half of them.

and its fertility rate has been higher than countries like japan forever.

I think its the economy, and the drive of the people to keep feeding it. In US, immigration is popular because immigration is a huge net positive to their economy.

everything else seems secondary

The US had a working age (30-40) median age since the industrial revolution. The median age in the 1950s is similar to the median age now because they designed the number of immigrants based on the average birth and death rate. 

The natural population distribution means when you don't mess with population growth, then the age distribution plot looks, it's called age structure plots. 

Now, if you compare the population pyramid of China and India, you can see the obvious difference in China because of one child policy and forced sterilizations showing up the population pyramid. 

Although, it might not seem like a huge problem, they have this 4-2-1 problem which basically means that one child is financially responsible for the welfare of two parents and four grand parents. Since the aging population in China is growing, this is a perceivable problem of the younger generation. Not to mention the skewed sex ratio because of one child policy. 

 

[narsy]

5 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

Yes, but there is nothing wrong in being dumb. They are all support structures. Their actions help other outliers to prosper. 

sure. There's elegance in going with the flow.

but only as long as they don't buy into myths that place them above others in the society, in terms of utility to society, simply by having kids.

anyway, I shouldn't be too harsh on people who have kids. Its a personal choice, just like not having kids.

I was just being my usual idiot self.

[DannyArcher]

2 hours ago, PilliBeta said:

Japan is close to 49, will be 50 soon. You don't see as many immigrants from Japan as from other Asian countries. What will happen when countries reach this? This is important because the median age of China is 39, the US is 35 and India is 28. US lo ante idi cover cheyadaniki immigration undi, China lo one child policy valla 4-2-1 problem kuda undi. What will happen to Japan and Greece since their median age is close to 50?

twarga fendli chesuko ... 🧿

[PilliBeta]

24 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

You have made you a choice so don’t act like it is a problem then. However, if countries think that a low median age means prosperity then what is wrong in them encouraging population growth. You yourself are a beneficiary in of these prosperous societies. They are giving you a chance to work on your dreams. It is a result of someone else’s sacrifice.

Low median age is not a sign of prosperity, a country would be prosperous when the median age is in the working age, i.e., be financially independent. The term is age dependency, i.e., the number of either old or young people per one working person. See how the US has had the same age dependency ratio since the 60s? 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-of-working-age-population?time=2017

Most African countries in blue have a really low median age, but that doesn't make them prosperous. The median age is low there because of low life expectancy. India has had a constant age dependency ratio because there was no messing with population growth, but China is predicted to have low a low age dependency ratio now because the number of working age population responsible for older people is higher because of one child policy. 

[narsy]

7 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

The US had a working age (30-40) median age since the industrial revolution. The median age in the 1950s is similar to the median age now because they designed the number of immigrants based on the average birth and death rate. 

The natural population distribution means when you don't mess with population growth, then the age distribution plot looks, it's called age structure plots. 

Now, if you compare the population pyramid of China and India, you can see the obvious difference in China because of one child policy and forced sterilizations showing up the population pyramid. 

Although, it might not seem like a huge problem, they have this 4-2-1 problem which basically means that one child is financially responsible for the welfare of two parents and four grand parents. Since the aging population in China is growing, this is a perceivable problem of the younger generation. Not to mention the skewed sex ratio because of one child policy. 

 

On hindsight, it might seem like US had some grand plan with stabilizing their population growth, but its just a happy accident because thankfully US govt is not completely in charge of immigration, and mostly keeps hands off approach allowing companies to hire at will with a couple dozen visa categories, and even higher illegal immigration that they turn a blind eye to, willingly.

Europe is trying to increase immigration now using these statistical models, and there's huge pushback on it. In the US, the pushback is almost nil.

China is obviously fcuked if they don't allow immigration and open up their economy in the near future. and yeah your argument holds good for China, and Europe as examples of lagging future growth

 

[narsy]

Is it your roundabout way to justify not having a child? because you don't have to. lol.

you owe nothing to anyone or anything. 

Ayn Rand got atleast that part right. minus the silly nationalism she tried to apply that singular principle to, in her later years.

[narsy]

but cats on a plane... ewwww... pls get rich enough to fly in private jets, and save us regular people the allergic reactions.

[PilliBeta]

2 minutes ago, narsy said:

Is it your roundabout way to justify not having a child? because you don't have to. lol.

you owe nothing to anyone or anything. 

Ayn Rand got atleast that part right. minus the silly nationalism she tried to apply that singular principle to, in her later years.

I don't know if I really don't want a child, I just didn't find a reason to have one yet. But the reason I have been researching this today is I find these statistics really interesting, especially correlating these statistics to predict a countries performance. 

[DummyVariable]

6 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

Low median age is not a sign of prosperity, a country would be prosperous when the median age is in the working age, i.e., be financially independent. The term is age dependency, i.e., the number of either old or young people per one working person. See how the US has had the same age dependency ratio since the 60s? 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-dependency-ratio-of-working-age-population?time=2017

Most African countries in blue have a really low median age, but that doesn't make them prosperous. The median age is low there because of low life expectancy. India has had a constant age dependency ratio because there was no messing with population growth, but China is predicted to have low a low age dependency ratio now because the number of working age population responsible for older people is higher because of one child policy. 

Low median age relative to what they are at now ra. Are you saying that countries with your high age dependency ratio are less prosperous? Are Scandinavian countries less prosperous than China?

[narsy]

17 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

I don't know if I really don't want a child, I just didn't find a reason to have one yet. But the reason I have been researching this today is I find these statistics really interesting, especially correlating these statistics to predict a countries performance. 

I knew that i didn't want a child when I was 19. is it different for women? and why exactly, apart from the silly cultural notions of motherhood.

 

[narsy]

16 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

Low median age relative to what they are at now ra. Are you saying that countries with your high age dependency ratio are less prosperous? Are Scandinavian countries less prosperous than China?

I think it has more to do with how the ratio is moving. if the ratio is increasing, it's gonna get richer. probably something like that.

scandinavian countries have the danger of collapse if they don't allow mass immigration. simple.

[narsy]

36 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

I don't know if I really don't want a child, I just didn't find a reason to have one yet. But the reason I have been researching this today is I find these statistics really interesting, especially correlating these statistics to predict a countries performance. 

but I understand the argument. The plots are all fine, but what kind of sense do you make from it?

India is in a phase of rapid growth - true

china is hapahazard and is still in phase of rapid growth (though it has slowed down terribly) - also true

How helpful is the plot in predicting a country's performance beyond a baseline that says 5% growth is awesome and can be considered rapid, and that china can be considered an outlier.

[PilliBeta]

33 minutes ago, narsy said:

I knew that i didn't want a child when I was 19. is it different for women? and why exactly, apart from the silly cultural notions of motherhood.

 

It's more not finding a reason to, rather than finding a reason not to. 

[narsy]

52 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

I don't know if I really don't want a child, I just didn't find a reason to have one yet. But the reason I have been researching this today is I find these statistics really interesting, especially correlating these statistics to predict a countries performance. 

China is already at stage 4 in that plot.