What will happen to countries when median age of a country reaches 50+

[PilliBeta]

12 minutes ago, narsy said:

but I understand the argument. The plots are all fine, but what kind of sense do you make from it?

India is in a phase of rapid growth - true

china is hapahazard and is still in phase of rapid growth (though it has slowed down terribly) - also true

How helpful is the plot in predicting a country's performance beyond a baseline that says 5% growth is awesome and can be considered rapid, and that china can be considered an outlier.

The countries which had industrial revolution in the past are all because of the peak in working age population. 

[PilliBeta]

Just now, narsy said:

China is already at stage 4 in that plot. 

Yeah China is screwed up, especially the next generations. They are already bringing in Vietnamese brides because they don't have enough women. 

[narsy]

3 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

It's more not finding a reason to, rather than finding a reason not to. 

but why are you sheepish about discussing what those reasons are openly as anon? 

did you do the silly thing of giving up your identity to some people here? I know that can be limiting, that's why I lie everytime when asked about myself online.

[PilliBeta]

48 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

Low median age relative to what they are at now ra. Are you saying that countries with your high age dependency ratio are less prosperous? Are Scandinavian countries less prosperous than China?

Industrial revolution in Europe and the US all happened when there was a peak in median age at the working age. India still doesn't have it's median age in the working age. If countries adopt good policies to educate the people when their median age is in this teens and twenties, then the country will progress. Otherwise it will have unemployment and other issues when the median age reaches the 30s. 

[PilliBeta]

1 minute ago, narsy said:

but why are you sheepish about discussing what those reasons are openly as anon? 

did you do the silly thing of giving up your identity to some people here? I know that can be limiting, that's why I lie everytime when asked about myself online.

The reason is simple really, I am not responsible enough for myself. I eat whatever, but I can't do that with a child. People talk about how mother is selfless and all, I don't see myself as being selfless towards someone else. If I have something I like, I don't see why I should give it up. So, I don't see the reason to have kids. 

[narsy]

3 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

Yeah China is screwed up, especially the next generations. They are already bringing in Vietnamese brides because they don't have enough women. 

China is screwed, in probably  the same way that Japan, Korea, and even Taiwan are screwed.

probably china slowling down will have bigger cascading effects in their social and political milleau than any other nation. and that process has already started.

China's belligerence wrt to India on ladakh is a direct consequence of Chinese premier to consolidate his flagging popularity among the chinese. and Chinese are only going to get more desperate if they don't make some changes to their policy 

[narsy]

5 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

The reason is simple really, I am not responsible enough for myself. I eat whatever, but I can't do that with a child. People talk about how mother is selfless and all, I don't see myself as being selfless towards someone else. If I have something I like, I don't see why I should give it up. So, I don't see the reason to have kids. 

my reasons are the same. but ofcourse it makes no difference since I can't personally give birth to a child.

they are very good reasons. questioning ourselves if we can ever replicate what our mothers did for us, for our child. What our mothers did was nothing short of amazing. and a very high bar to try and reach.

its best to give up and not harm another living person.

[narsy]

23 minutes ago, PilliBeta said:

Industrial revolution in Europe and the US all happened when there was a peak in median age at the working age. India still doesn't have it's median age in the working age. If countries adopt good policies to educate the people when their median age is in this teens and twenties, then the country will progress. Otherwise it will have unemployment and other issues when the median age reaches the 30s. 

Not just educating. providing employment is another key thing. Free market is not able to do its magic to provide jobs for everybody. so govt has to intervene to either make India a humongous exporter of cheap goods, or spend domestically to create demand that local industries can then fulfill.

yeah, India has lots of room for growth. that's why even the colossal dumbfcuk Modi can't derail India's economy, even though he has tried to do it multiple times.

[DummyVariable]

1 hour ago, narsy said:

I think it has more to do with how the ratio is moving. if the ratio is increasing, it's gonna get richer. probably something like that.

scandinavian countries have the danger of collapse if they don't allow mass immigration. simple.

Sweden has been trying to be immigration friendly for some time. Others are realizing/will realize that immigration is their best bet. Some are confused which ones to let in. Most high income free countries will seek immigration. You really cannot have expansive welfare policies in free societies and resist people coming in at the same time.

[DummyVariable]

1 hour ago, PilliBeta said:

Industrial revolution in Europe and the US all happened when there was a peak in median age at the working age. India still doesn't have it's median age in the working age. If countries adopt good policies to educate the people when their median age is in this teens and twenties, then the country will progress. Otherwise it will have unemployment and other issues when the median age reaches the 30s. 

Are you saying that people were educated when the industrial revolution happened? 

[narsy]

12 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

Sweden has been trying to be immigration friendly for some time. Others are realizing/will realize that immigration is their best bet. Some are confused which ones to let in. Most high income free countries will seek immigration. You really cannot have expansive welfare policies in free societies and resist people coming in at the same time.

yes. these countries are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They are unable to attract high quaillty immigration of the kind that US is able to, purely because of its loose regulations. The taxes too, are not a big issue. I think its the regulations that EU has saddled its member nations with.

[narsy]

4 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

Are you saying that people were educated when the industrial revolution happened? 

good point. Education is more of a recent phenomenon.

growth has more to do with expanding trading partners and being aggressively competitive, until an inflection point is achieved when the economy can move to rent seeking activity via patents, and commodtize everything else.

[PilliBeta]

14 minutes ago, DummyVariable said:

Are you saying that people were educated when the industrial revolution happened? 

But they were employable. 

[DummyVariable]

7 hours ago, PilliBeta said:

But they were employable. 

Kids used to work in factories back then. The little education they had was from the church. What does median age, employability and your age dependency mean in that context? 

[PilliBeta]

2 hours ago, DummyVariable said:

Kids used to work in factories back then. The little education they had was from the church. What does median age, employability and your age dependency mean in that context? 

If all you need is factory workers, I guess you don't need formal education.