Obama’s wars may leave India worse off

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A book by Bob Woodward (of Watergate fame) is likely to make Pakistan uneasy. The book, titled Obama’s Wars, is due for release on September 27 but excerpts from it are already out in the
media. It says that the CIA has trained and is running a special Afghanistan army of about 3,000 men to take on the Taliban and
al-Qaeda in Pakistan. Incidentally, ever since Obama took over, drone attacks inside Pakistan have gone up dramatically, clearly showing that the new administration in the White House
believes that elements of the Taliban and al-Qaeda are hiding in Pakistan.

Woodward’s book, much of which was put out and is now available on blogs and news reports, says that soon after taking over as president, Barack Obama reached the conclusion that it will be impossible to win the war in Afghanistan unless the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Pakistan were first destroyed. But since sending US troops into Pakistan ran the risk of angering Islamabad and disturbing the latter’s support for the war on terror, the administration asked the CIA to prepare a secret army to fight the Taliban and the al-Qaeda, and which it has been doing quite commendably.

But it is also a fact that the war against the Taliban and al-Qaeda cannot be won without the support of Pakistan. Islamabad is bound to react once the news about the secret army becomes public, assuming it does not know about its existence already. It is unlikely to be too happy with Obama’s secret army.

The report that a brigade-size army is actually carrying out operations in Pakistan might seem like good news to New Delhi, which has been gnashing its teeth in impotent rage over Pakistan’s support for terrorists and the use of the Taliban for its own ends. However, Obama’s wars are not going to ultimately help India combat the terrorist threat from Pakistan. The fact is Obama is already chickening out. He has publicly declared that US troops will start pulling out of Afghanistan by July, 2011. That is a desirable goal, but starting a pullout without destroying the core elements of the Taliban and al-Qaeda means they could regroup and rise once again. If they do that, the chances are that they will not only gain power in Afghanistan but in nuclear-armed Pakistan also, a scenario that is simply too horrible to comprehend. India has to figure out what a US exit means for Indian interests not only in Afghanistan, but back home as well.