NYTimes Report: Not 3 Lakh, India May Really Have 40 Lakh COVID Deaths

[dewarist]

23 minutes ago, soodhilodaaram said:

Wait for these NYT MF's to say India need to suspend its space program to save lives

the last thing one can trust news about india is NYT, they have a congenital hatred for India with their American exceptionalism

In "The Daily Guardian", lies our trust. Asalu India's internal matter lo vella utsaham emito

[dewarist]

2 hours ago, kingcasanova said:

3 lakhs antene, bhayam tho chasthunnaaru, ika 40 lakh ante weak hearts anni pagili pothaaayi, entha mandi poyaaru entha mandiki vachindi ane daani badulu vachina vaallani elaa cure cheyyaalo advices isthe chaaaalu, numbers telusukunte plan inkaa baaga cheyachu ani statement ivvochu, but aaa planningey vunte paristhithi ilaa endukuntundi , so manam unna situation lo, manaku unna resources tho 40 lakh deaths, 50 crore testings expect cheyakunda, reality lo batakandi,  

We don't have a knack for that, please say something else.

Reality is people dying..infact "young people" dying. Sole bread winners, in their families. Their families have to live in that reality for the rest of their life.

[rightwar]

2 hours ago, bhaigan said:

"Poor record-keeping”, “lack of widespread testing” and “India grossly understating the true state of the pandemic” are some of the damning observations on the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India made in a New York Times article.

In the absence of transparency, the NYT spoke to over a dozen experts to analyse the number of cases and deaths to arrive at several estimates for the real extent of devastation on ground zero.

The detailed report also relies on large-scale antibody tests to arrive at estimates. Despite its limitations, the tests provide a fresh way to arrive at more realistic figures. “It gives us a starting point. I think that an exercise like this can put some bounds on the estimates,” Dan Weinberger, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, told the NYT.

The report looks at official data from 24 May to compare with the probable estimates. India’s official COVID report states there have been 2,69,48,800 cases of COVID-19 and 3,07,231 deaths.

The Conservative Estimate

The conservative estimate suggests that the pandemic’s actual toll and infections are, in reality, several times higher than reports suggest. This, the NYT report calls, the best-case scenario.

The report used data from three nationwide antibody tests, called serosurveys. Each survey had about 30,000 people examined for COVID-19 antibodies. They also used a conservative infection-fatality rate in this scenario at 0.15 percent.

These estimates reveal:

• The number of cases is 15 times higher than the official figures. It suggests there are 40.42 crore COVI-19 infections as opposed to the officially reported figure of 2.6 crore cases
• The number of deaths is two times higher than that of the official figures. The estimate points towards 6 lakh deaths against the officially reported 3 lakh fatalities

A More Likely Scenario

The report uses the latest seroprevalence in India, which happened in January 2021, and estimated roughly 26 infections per reported case.

In this “more likely scenario”, the report uses a slightly lower figure (than 26 infections per reported case) to calculate infections and the infection fatality rate at 0.3 percent.

These estimates reveal:

• The number of cases is 20 times higher than the official figures. The estimate suggests there are 53.9 crore COVID infections as opposed to the officially reported 2.6 crore cases
• The number of deaths is over five times higher than the official figures. The estimate points towards 16 lakh deaths against the officially reported 3 lakh fatalities

A Worse Scenario

This scenario uses a slightly higher estimate to account for the current wave of infections per reported case. The infection-fatality rate has also increased to double the previous one at 0.6 per cent.

This scenario takes into account the stress of India’s healthcare system. Over the last few weeks, there has been a severe lack of oxygen, beds, and medicines among other things.

This means that a greater share of those who contracted the virus but are not getting access to medical infrastructure, are dying.

The estimates reveal:

• The number of cases is 26 times higher than the official figures. The estimate suggests there are 70.07 crore COVID infections as opposed to the officially reported 2.6 crore cases
• The number of deaths is almost 14 times higher than the official figures. The estimate suggests 42 lakh deaths have occurred in contrast to the official figure of 3 lakh

How Infection Rates Have Been Calculated

Relying on three national serosurveys, the report states how all three found that the actual number of infections was drastically more than the official figures.

• According to a serosurvey conducted between May and June 2020, the number of actual infections was estimated to be about 28.5 times higher
• According to a serosurvey conducted between August and September 2020, the number of actual infections was estimated to be about 13.5 times higher
• According to a serosurvey conducted between December and January 2021, the number of actual infections was estimated to be over 26 times higher

Even this, doctors said, could be an underestimation.

“Those who had been infected a while ago may have not been captured in this survey. So this is probably an underestimation of the true proportion of the infected population,” said, Dr Shioda, an epidemiologist at Emory University.

How Deaths Have Been Calculated

The report says that infection-fatality rates published were calculated before the second wave in India, meaning that the rate could be much higher.

At the same time, these rates vary greatly by age. A paper that examined infection rates using serosurvey data from three locations in India found huge variations, depending upon the population being sampled.

“We found that age-specific infection-fatality rate among returning lockdown migrants was much higher than in richer countries. In contrast, we found a much lower first-wave infection-fatality rate than richer countries in the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu,” Dr Paul Novosad, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, said.

While estimates may vary, one thing that can be said “clearly beyond all doubt” is that the pandemic is much larger than official figures portray.

 

and NYT predicted hillary clinton to easily win 2016 presidential elections 

[reality]

bondha pettandi ra NYT vadini...

shavalu anni Hudson river lonchi kottukochayi .. ganga nadi loki...

ani antunna BJ ist... @kangana runout

[kingcasanova]

9 hours ago, dewarist said:

We don't have a knack for that, please say something else.

Reality is people dying..infact "young people" dying. Sole bread winners, in their families. Their families have to live in that reality for the rest of their life.

yeah they are dying, kaaani ipudu 3 lakh poyaara 40 lakh poyaara ani malli counting cheyadaniki manaku antha time and resources unnaaya ani aduguthunna

[siru]

10 hours ago, soodhilodaaram said:

Wait for these NYT MF's to say India need to suspend its space program to save lives

the last thing one can trust news about india is NYT, they have a congenital hatred for India with their American exceptionalism

bhakt okkadu kuda tagalledu thread 1st page end varaku anukunna..there you are. Didn't disappoint

[siru]

9 hours ago, rightwar said:

and NYT predicted hillary clinton to easily win 2016 presidential elections 

2 to 4 million indians dead and you are smiling and trolling. Interesting u think you are a patriot

[reality]

Just now, siru said:

2 to 4 million indians dead and you are smiling and trolling. Interesting u think you are a patriot

karma... em cheddam

[soodhilodaaram]

9 minutes ago, siru said:

2 to 4 million indians dead and you are smiling and trolling. Interesting u think you are a patriot

how did you know he was smiling

[soodhilodaaram]

11 minutes ago, siru said:

bhakt okkadu kuda tagalledu thread 1st page end varaku anukunna..there you are. Didn't disappoint

MG aite

[siru]

1 minute ago, soodhilodaaram said:

how did you know he was smiling

vadi mg aithe..topic chudu daridruda

[siru]

1 minute ago, soodhilodaaram said:

how did you know he was smiling

smiley pettadu chusko.kallu 10gaaya

[rightwar]

1 hour ago, siru said:

2 to 4 million indians dead and you are smiling and trolling. Interesting u think you are a patriot

i am smiling and trolling on NYT not on death count of NYT which interestingly you blindly believe because they talk against central govt(central only)

btw 2-4 million is such a wide range of prediction which no scientific study can predict except biased minds (NYT in this case)

[rightwar]

1 hour ago, siru said:

bhakt okkadu kuda tagalledu thread 1st page end varaku anukunna..there you are. Didn't disappoint

anduke cheptunna social media lo cong IT cell chese pracharam chusi over excite avvakandi ani

[Vaampire]

40 lakhs kaadhu kaani 10-15lakhs aithey chanipoyaru...

Under reporting lo aithey TG ki award ivochu... Denamma daily easy gaa 100-200 people chanipothunnaru. TG govt aithey 20-30 deaths ani report chesthundi