Only one way I can see a recession possibility

[Raven_Rayes]

12 minutes ago, veerigadu said:

They won’t do it. I have been hearing that crap for a while. In hindsight fed made this kind of predictions atleast 15 times in last 10 years. The sitting presidents never allow it to happen as they don’t want to see any economic slow down during their regime. 

never bet against a govt's debt. countries go bust when the law and order goes bust. Not when they print excess money. printing excess money simply results in super high inflation, which can be offset by productivity rise overall.

when this system breaks down, that's when the currency loses its value. Not just due to printing.

[RoadRomeo]

3 minutes ago, Raven_Rayes said:

never bet against a govt's debt. countries go bust when the law and order goes bust. Not when they print excess money. printing excess money simply results in super high inflation, which can be offset by productivity rise overall.

when this system breaks down, that's when the currency loses its value. Not just due to printing.

can productivity rise through sh1tty companies tcs, cognizant, infosys...mesthris....recruiters ...that make peoples life dull and boring and pain in the ass jobs

[Raven_Rayes]

1 minute ago, anna_gari_maata said:

Recession is already here, companies are just covering up by inflating cost of goods and displaying bubbled accounts.

Once other countries gain traction with economy, dollar will start coming down. This is possibly end of dollar

there won't be a recession in your lifetime again, as long as dumbfcuk republicans are not allowed to sit in the president's chair again.

instead the growth will be ultra slow. asset bubbles may occur, but overall income levels will stop growing even for people in IT, and other service sectors.

[Raven_Rayes]

Just now, RoadRomeo said:

can productivity rise through sh1tty companies tcs, cognizant, infosys...mesthris....recruiters ...that make people life dull and boring and pain in the ass jobs

These are not shitty companies. They just don't serve the Indian market.

yes, productivity is raised by IT companies like the above. Literally any company that either absorbs debt in the economy, or infuses foreign money into the economy raises productivity in that society.

not just infosys etc, even ambani, adani and Mallya, all are productivity raisers for the Indian economy and are a net positive. They are just taking on debt that Indian govt is refusing to take on. I can't say if this is deliberate or because of general conservative nature of the Indian govt. I suspect its the latter.

[veerigadu]

6 minutes ago, Raven_Rayes said:

never bet against a govt's debt. countries go bust when the law and order goes bust. Not when they print excess money. printing excess money simply results in super high inflation, which can be offset by productivity rise overall.

when this system breaks down, that's when the currency loses its value. Not just due to printing.

Inflation is at 15 year high and M0, M1 and M2 values more than tripled in last one year. It’s a perfect recipe for hyperinflation and possible stock market correction.

[Raven_Rayes]

9 minutes ago, veerigadu said:

Inflation is at 15 year high and M0, M1 and M2 values more than tripled in last one year. It’s a perfect recipe for hyperinflation and possible stock market correction.

That's because US productvity levels have dropped.

Its not because of printing money. Like I said, US prints lesser than most countries.

US can improve productivity in one single stroke. Announce a universal health care funded at the federal level. If it increases money supply, you can always tax it back into the system to stop inflatin.

ofcourse millions will lose their bs jobs in health sector.. and will find jobs in the new system.

[Raven_Rayes]

7 minutes ago, veerigadu said:

Inflation is at 15 year high and M0, M1 and M2 values more than tripled in last one year. It’s a perfect recipe for hyperinflation and possible stock market correction.

US will be pushed into making a jobs guarantee program. you just wait and watch, dude.

whole world will follow suit.

unless ofcourse the fascists take over.

[Raven_Rayes]

Also US should start taxing capital gains at the rate of income taxes, or even greater than that.

It may create even bigger asset bubbles, that's the only problem.

[Raven_Rayes]

13 minutes ago, veerigadu said:

Inflation is at 15 year high and M0, M1 and M2 values more than tripled in last one year. It’s a perfect recipe for hyperinflation and possible stock market correction.

Japan has been printing sh1t for 30yrs. has there been hyperinflation in Japan? Japanese govt owes about 3 times its GDP to itself. The debt is meaningless.

US, on the other hand, has only just about 120% of its GDP as its debt. Its nothing.

 

[veerigadu]

Just now, Raven_Rayes said:

Also US should start taxing capital gains at the rate of income taxes, or even greater than that.

It may create even bigger asset bubbles, that's the only problem.

Not gonna happen. Loop holes in Capital gains save all rich MOFO from payinh taxes. It’s next to impossible to expect anything on this one. But I get your point 

[veerigadu]

2 minutes ago, Raven_Rayes said:

Japan has been printing sh1t for 30yrs. has there been hyperinflation in Japan? Japanese govt owes about 3 times its GDP to itself. The debt is meaningless.

US, on the other hand, has only just about 120% of its GDP as its debt. Its nothing.

 

Have you ever heard about “ lost decade”.

I bet you didn’t. Go ahead and read it. Japan is at its knees for the last three decades. 

[Raven_Rayes]

26 minutes ago, veerigadu said:

Have you ever heard about “ lost decade”.

I bet you didn’t. Go ahead and read it. Japan is at its knees for the last three decades. 

What else do you think Japan could've done to prevent this 'lost decades'?

Japan is a conservative society, whose societal attitudes didn't keep up with rising prosperity. That's what led to 'lost decades'.. not printing more money.

US, and every other western nation, is headed to the same place. US has the advantage that it allows almost unrestricted immigration (as much as possible), and has managed to tide over the 'lost decades' with increases in productivity and rise in living standards atleast for a section of its population.

but ultimately, US cannot escape Japan's fate. Unless there are new technologies or new markets to serve. No amount of fiscal jugglery can avoid this fate.

ofcourse there are political forces far beyond this monetary framework that can take US on a different path.... like fascism or anarchism. both are unlikely.

[Raven_Rayes]

42 minutes ago, veerigadu said:

Not gonna happen. Loop holes in Capital gains save all rich MOFO from payinh taxes. It’s next to impossible to expect anything on this one. But I get your point 

my point is, money is meaningless without goods or services in kind. Its an abstraction, an accounting system. Nothing more.

what triggered the last recession is panic selling. increase in debt levels in the private sector. The instittutions are smarter now, and the govt is ready to take on more and more debt. And that means govt will never let the economy fall, and will always act as the lender of last resort to the private sector. In all times.

and the govt cannot run out of its own money. These days, they don't even need ink to print it. They are just numbers on the system.

what needs to change is politics. decisions about where money could better serve people. decisions that are scientific and consensus based, not driven from the top.

[Raven_Rayes]

Yeah, it applies to India too.

so why is India poor? Go ask Modi. lol.

Its slightly complicated than that, but ultimately Modi is responsible. I really thought he would unlock the key to Indian productivity. but he remained the same sh1t that MMS was.