Karnataka Elections Analysis.

[CherryGaru]

Congress made gains at Janata Dal's expenses.

Not much change for BJP since 2018 , 36.35% in 2018, now 36% in 2023

Janata Dal lost 5% popular vote which went to Congress which gained from 38% to 43%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Karnataka_Legislative_Assembly_election

Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Contested	Won	+/−
	Indian National Congress	16,789,272	42.88	4.74	223	135	55
	Bharatiya Janata Party	14,096,529	36.00	0.35	224	66	38
	Janata Dal (Secular)	5,205,489	13.29	4.71	209	19	18
	Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha				30	1	1
	Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha				5	1	1
	Bahujan Samaj Party	120,430	0.31	0.01	133	0	1
	Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party				2	0	1
	Independents					2	1
	Others
	NOTA
Total			100%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Karnataka_Legislative_Assembly_election#Results

Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	13,328,524	36.35	16.3	104	64
	Indian National Congress (INC)	13,986,526	38.14	1.4	80	42
	Janata Dal (Secular) (JDS)	6,726,667	18.3	1.9	37	3
	Independents (IND)	1,438,106	3.9	3.5	1	8
	Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)	108,592	0.32		1	1
	Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP)	74,229	0.2		1	1
	Other parties and candidates	683,632	2.2		0	13
	None of the Above (NOTA)	322,841	0.9
Total		36,739,562	100.00		224	±0

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Karnataka_Legislative_Assembly_election

Parties and Coalitions		Popular vote			Seats
		Vote	%	+/-	Contested	Won	+/-	%
	Indian National Congress	11,473,025	36.6	1.8	223	122	43	54.46
	Janata Dal (Secular)	6,329,158	20.2	1.1	222	40	12	17.86
	Bharatiya Janata Party	6,236,227	19.9	13.9	222	40	72	17.86
	Karnataka Janata Paksha	3,069,207	9.8	9.8	204	6	6	2.68
	Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress	844,588	2.7	2.7	176	4	4	1.79
	Samajwadi Party	105,948	0.3	0.6	27	1	1	0.45
	Karnataka Makkala Paksha	55867	0.2	0.2	7	1	1	0.44
	Sarvodaya Karnataka Party	109,039	0.4	0.1	6	1	1	0.44
	Independents	2,313,386	7.4	0.5	1217	9	3	4.02
Other parties and candidates		816,009	2.6		644	0		0.0
Total		31,352,454	100.00		2948	224	±0	100.0

[CherryGaru]

On this bases, unless BRS screws up badly and its votes go to Congress or BJP(mainly congress, BJP is no where) in a very big way, there is no way anyone else can come to power other than KCR.

TRS/BRS got 47% popular vote, ante 1 in 2 in Telangana liked TRS/BRS in 2018, and I don't see any change in coming elections too.

Inka crying start cheyandi.

Parties and Coalitions		Popular vote		Seats
		Vote	%	Contested	Won	+/-
	Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)	9,700,749	46.9%	119	88	25
	Indian National Congress (INC)	5,883,111	28.4%	99	19	2
	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	1,450,456	7.1%	118	1	4
	Telugu Desam Party (TDP)	725,845	3.5%	13	2	13
	All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)	561,089	2.7%	8	7
	Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)	428,430	2.1%	106	0	2
	All India Forward Bloc (AIFB)	159,141	0.8%	19	1	1
	Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM)	91,099	0.4%	26	0	1
	Communist Party of India (CPI)	83,215	0.4%	3	0	1
	Independents (IND)	673,694	3.3%	675	1
	None of the above (India) (NOTA)	224,709	1.1%
Total		20,695,428	100.00	119

[CherryGaru]

Also if there is 3 way fight in any assembly constituency, BRS will be happy to get majority in those places, as Congress and BJP will fight and distribute vote share.

[AnotherTeluguBidda]

Manchidi

[Mediahypocrisy]

9 hours ago, CherryGaru said:

Also if there is 3 way fight in any assembly constituency, BRS will be happy to get majority in those places, as Congress and BJP will fight and distribute vote share.

Congress + BJP kalsi poti cheste opposition vote cheelakunda untadi...2.5 yrs revantham..2.5 yrs bandi CM ga undochu...

Ila oppinchagalavadu okade unnadu...athade....

[Sixers]

BJP inka Congress game aadi next elections Kalla TRS ni inko JDS ni chestharu chusthu undu.

[manadonga]

Bjp voted for brs in 2018 

bra have 40% vote share still in leading position 

but bjp and congress focusing only 80 seats so seat share is vere la vundochhu

still i feel brs will win 

congress ki cupu vachhindi peeta buddu lu maneste 40 seats vastayi lekanpothe 10 vastayi 

bjp 10 to20 max antaku minchi kastam vallu only 30 seats kenpoti chestunaru 

[CherryGaru]

12 hours ago, manadonga said:

Bjp voted for brs in 2018 

bra have 40% vote share still in leading position 

but bjp and congress focusing only 80 seats so seat share is vere la vundochhu

still i feel brs will win 

congress ki cupu vachhindi peeta buddu lu maneste 40 seats vastayi lekanpothe 10 vastayi 

bjp 10 to20 max antaku minchi kastam vallu only 30 seats kenpoti chestunaru 

why bjp voted for brs in 2018 ?

[bhaigan]

Itla ne annaru himchal pradesh

monna local body elections lo clean sweep

[bhaigan]

Kannadiga's Tejasvi Surya grudda antha pagalkottali

[bhaigan]

ee DB motham baffa galle untaru

[TOM_BHAYYA]

13 hours ago, Mediahypocrisy said:

Congress + BJP kalsi poti cheste opposition vote cheelakunda untadi...2.5 yrs revantham..2.5 yrs bandi CM ga undochu...

Ila oppinchagalavadu okade unnadu...athade....

 

[MiryalgudaMaruthiRao]

[Pavanonline]

On 5/14/2023 at 11:41 AM, CherryGaru said:

Also if there is 3 way fight in any assembly constituency, BRS will be happy to get majority in those places, as Congress and BJP will fight and distribute vote share.

congress and BJP vote bank are different, I would assume if BJP gains they might gain at expense of BRS than Congress. Congress has good cadre but leadership is all divided. So if they can unite, which I don't think they will, it will be tough fight for BRS.