If BJP wins in 2024, it will also win 2029 due to delimitation

[Guest]

New Delhi: 

The Women's Reservation Bill, once implemented, will redraw the electoral map of India. The census and delimitation exercise that will precede the implementation of reservation, is expected to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to a whopping 753. The biggest jump, as expected, will be in Uttar Pradesh, which already sends the largest number of MPs to Parliament. The southern states are likely to have a marginal rise, pushing them further back in terms of representation and electoral heft.

In 2026, the estimated population of India will be 1.42 billion and this data will be crucial for delimitation, which redraws the boundaries of a constituency on basis of its population.

Based on those numbers, the Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka are expected to increase from 28 to 36 in 2026 -- a jump of just eight seats. The number of seats in Telangana will rise from 17 to 20, Andhra Pradesh from 25 to 28 and Tamil Nadu from 39 to 41.

 

 

 

The case of Kerala, which has controlled population growth best, will be singular -- the number of its Lok Sabha seats will drop from 20 to 19.

In contrast, the number of seats in Uttar Pradesh will go up from 80 to 128. The other northern states would also see significantly more representation.

Bihar -- another state with a rapidly growing population, will have 70 seats instead of the current 40.

There are currently 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, which after delimitation are expected to be 47. In Maharashtra, there is an estimate of increase of 20 seats after delimitation -- from 48 to 68.
Rajasthan's number will reach 44 from the current 25.

The huge numerical discrepancy between the northern and southern parts of the country, is expected to draw criticism from the Opposition.

Yesterday, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said in Lok Sabha that census and delimitation will be undertaken after next year's general election. Sources have said the government will also address the north-south divide in terms of representation.

The number of Lok Sabha seats have not increased since 1977.

So far, Delimitation Commission has been formed four times -- in 1952, 1963, 1973, 2002. Delimitation did not happen after the census of 1981 and 1991. Though it took place after the 2001 census, the number of seats were not increased.

Once quota is implemented, the number of women members in the Lok Sabha will increase from the current 82 to 181. 33 per cent seats will be reserved for women in the state assemblies also.

 

 

The Delimitation Commission will be formed by the President and it will work closely with the Election Commission. Retired judges of the Supreme Court will be members. The decision of the commission cannot be challenged.

[argadorn]

Southern states will have no say in politics 

[Guest]

Just now, argadorn said:

Southern states will have no say in politics 

Regardless of the political party, 2026 delimitation will happen. North India alone will have 609 seats. Andulo BJP ki sagam vesukunna 305. BJP has significant strength in Karnataka, next time due to anti-incumbency Congress will lose. So safe to add another 35 seats. Whoever is in Andhra will support BJP. Added with One Nation, One election advantage, BJP will win again in 2029. 

[Anta Assamey]

On a Country level or State level... Who ever Wins 2024 they will have higher chances in 2029 also due to delimitation..

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Anta Assamey said:

On a Country level or State level... Who ever Wins 2024 they will have higher chances in 2029 also due to delimitation..

Yes. BJP one Nation One Election will be the beginning to the end of the regional parties. 

This is why TDP is not looking further into the future. CBN is still stuck in the 90s. He should have been in the alliance with the BJP irrespective of the elction result. Lokesh would have been made BJP-TDP CM sometime in the future. BRS, YCP already fell in line. 

[lokesh_rjy]

BIMARU states ki enni seats avutai after delimitation ?

[anna_gari_maata]

It's funny that people are thinking like North India is a single voting block. There are like 10 big states in N India. Modi is getting elected because he has the capability to lure voters. Oka sari Modi down aithe India inka dogs tearing vistari leaf.

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, lokesh_rjy said:

BIMARU states ki enni seats avutai after delimitation ?

128+70= UP+Bihar 

Include Jharkhand 20-25 So Mottham kalipi oka 200

 

 

[Guest]

Just now, anna_gari_maata said:

It's funny that people are thinking like North India is a single voting block. There are like 10 big states in N India. Modi is getting elected because he has the capability to lure voters. Oka sari Modi down aithe India inka dogs tearing vistari leaf.

Modi will not be the PM forever. Modi knows this better  than anyone. So 2024 might be the last time he will contest as PM given that he is 73. By the time he completes his 3rd term, he'll be 78 years old. Since he needs to leave a legacy & a successor, he will probably retire from politics. Amit Shah is only 60. BJP has long way to go unless people think otherwise.

[anna_gari_maata]

4 minutes ago, rushmore said:

Modi will not be the PM forever. Modi knows this better  than anyone. So 2024 might be the last time he will contest as PM given that he is 73. By the time he completes his 3rd term, he'll be 78 years old. Since he needs to leave a legacy & a successor, he will probably retire from politics. Amit Shah is only 60. BJP has long way to go unless people think otherwise.

After Amit Shah Yogi is 51 ....bane plan chesaru

[Guest]

1 minute ago, anna_gari_maata said:

After Amit Shah Yogi is 51 ....bane plan chesaru

Inkaa chalaa mandi leaders unnaru. Manaki AP&TS tappa bayata states teledu kabatti...BJP ayipoyindi ane oka bhrama lo untam...reality is different!

[anna_gari_maata]

Just now, rushmore said:

Inkaa chalaa mandi leaders unnaru. Manaki AP&TS tappa bayata states teledu kabatti...BJP ayipoyindi ane oka bhrama lo untam...reality is different!

Too many cooks spoil the broth. The thing I like is, BJP operates like a cricket team. Groom players, find captains.

[Android_Halwa]

10 minutes ago, anna_gari_maata said:

It's funny that people are thinking like North India is a single voting block. There are like 10 big states in N India. Modi is getting elected because he has the capability to lure voters. Oka sari Modi down aithe India inka dogs tearing vistari leaf.

I think BJP has grown organically at every level since 1980’s. Time by time, they have their influence on not just voters but across departments, govt machinery etc just like Congress had its men everywhere. BJP power nundi digi poina they will wield considerable influence. 
 

Most importantly, 99’s nundi young and new voters antha BJP support group batch…they will vote to BJP for rest of their lives just like the voters of the 60’s who have votes to congress all their life. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, anna_gari_maata said:

Too many cooks spoil the broth

Always possible. Especially when they're not in power.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Android_Halwa said:

I think BJP has grown organically at every level since 1980’s. Time by time, they have their influence on not just voters but across departments, govt machinery etc just like Congress had its men everywhere. BJP power nundi digi poina they will wield considerable influence. 
 

Most importantly, 99’s nundi young and new voters antha BJP support group batch…they will vote to BJP for rest of their lives just like the voters of the 60’s who have votes to congress all their life. 

Congress desanni mingapettindhi chaalanna! Inkaa cheyyanisthe adi janala tappu avuthundi.