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AI Stock Market Vs Non AI Stock Market
A tech-led rally in US equities is pulling global capital back home, leaving India short of triggers as valuations remain high and earnings momentum has yet to stage a strong comeback. US stocks have kicked off the year on a record high, powered by a renewed surge in technology and AI names, as investors bet that geopolitics may ultimately ease -- not tighten -- financial conditions. Wall Street’s rally gathered momentum after the US capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was read by markets as reducing concerns around energy and geopolitics, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will have room to cut rates later this year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both hit fresh all-time highs, with gains overwhelmingly concentrated in mega-cap technology, AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks, extending a rally that has now run for nearly three years. That strength, however, is only accentuated a growing global divergence. And India sits firmly on the wrong side of it. The divide is at multiple levels: between AI and non AI markets, and then, between markets with weakening and stronger currencies, as US President Donald Trump has reset trade terms, and the dollar has turned decisively weak. This already played over the past year with India emerging as one of the weakest relative-return markets in the world. While US equities have delivered high-teens returns over the last 12 months, Indian benchmarks have struggled to keep pace, with gains stuck in single digits for the frontline indices, and several broader indices ending up flat to negative on a relative basis. India has also underperformed Japan and parts of emerging Asia, reversing the leadership position from earlier years when it was seen as a structural growth outlier. What does all this mean? Jefferies’ Asia strategy describes India as the clearest example of the “reverse AI trade” — a market that has remained largely disconnected from the global AI capex boom while continuing to trade at a premium to peers. Unlike the US, where AI-linked capex has directly lifted earnings visibility and market concentration, India has seen little direct earnings spillover from the theme. The result is an uncomfortable mix of elevated valuations, modest earnings growth, and declining foreign flows, just as global investors are once again being pulled back into US technology leaders. Foreign portfolio investor activity reflects that shift. As US tech stocks regain momentum, India has struggled to attract sustained incremental flows, relying increasingly on domestic institutions to stabilise markets. This is a model that works in drawdowns, as Indian investors so far have had a steadfast ‘buy-on-dips’ approach, but offers limited upside during global risk-on phases. This means that for Indian equities, the list of potential catalysts is narrow — and conditional. According to several global analysts, the most important trigger would be a clear pivot toward monetary easing in the US. A dovish Fed would weaken the dollar, loosen global liquidity and reopen the relative-value case for emerging markets, including India. Without that shift, India will find it difficult to compete with the earnings momentum and thematic clarity driving US stocks. The second lever is a visible improvement in earnings growth, led by domestic demand. A pickup in consumption, credit growth and private capex would help justify valuations that currently leave little margin for disappointment. If those conditions fall into place, select pockets of the Indian market could respond quickly. Rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, non-bank lenders, real estate and consumption-linked stocks would be the most immediate beneficiaries of a global and domestic easing cycle. Financials, in particular, will benefit from lower funding costs and improved loan growth, while discretionary consumption would benefit from easing inflation and stronger household demand. Until then, India may remain caught in a global market structure dominated by US technology and AI, andwaiting for rate cuts, stronger demand, or both, to reclaim its leadership in global portfolios. -
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