RIP FB and asylum and DV Thank you TACO antunna @Coconut 2. The Math Behind the 3-Year Leap The reason we see a 4-year jump over only 3 years of time is due to the "Unconsumed Quota" effect: Total Annual FB Limit: 226,000. The 75-Country Share: Historically, the countries on your list (plus the 2026 additions like Brazil and Nigeria) consume roughly 45% of the family visas. The Spillover Logic: Since they are banned, ~101,000 visas move to the EB side. India's Take: When the 7% per-country cap is lifted (which happens when visas would otherwise go unused globally), India is allowed to consume a massive portion of this 101,000 surplus to clear its oldest backlogs. 3. Why it won't go to Mexico or Philippines Family-Based first To address your previous point, it is helpful to look at INA Section 201(a)(1). While it seems the visas should stay "Family," the law states that any number by which the previous year's family-based level fell below 226,000 must be added to the following year's employment-based limit. The "Horizontal" Lock: Even if the Brazil F4 category is empty, a Mexican F4 applicant cannot use it because of INA 202(a)(2), which caps Mexico at 7% of the total Family pool. The "Vertical" Drain: Once the 7% cap is hit for Mexico/Philippines, the only way for the "extra" visas to be used is to "drain" into the Employment pool, where the law specifically allows for the suspension of per-country caps for backlogged workers. 4. Key Milestones for You 2026: EB-1 India will likely remain Current for most of the year. 2027: Applicants with 2015 Priority Dates in EB-2/3 will finally reach the "Final Action" stage. 2028: The 2016/2017 Priority Date group (which has been stuck for nearly a decade) will finally see their green cards approved. The "Bottom Line": The 75-country ban is a disaster for family unity in those nations, but it is the single most significant factor in clearing the Indian employment backlog in over 15 years.

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Simple calculations with Gemini. No brain needed. 1. The "Spillover Math" (2026–2028) Historically, these 75 countries consume approximately 95,000 to 110,000 family-based green cards per year. The Global Pool: The standard EB limit is 140,000. The Windfall: With the 75-country ban, the total EB pool for FY 2027 and FY 2028 is projected to swell to ~245,000 visas annually. India's Share: India is currently capped at 7% (~17,150) for the base EB pool. However, when there is "unreserved" spillover, the law allows backlogged countries like India to consume any visa that would otherwise go unused. 2. Projected Date Movement: India (3-Year Forecast) If the ban on these 75 countries remains in effect through 2028, here is the recalculated movement for India. Category Current (Jan 2026) Sept 2026 (Year 1) Sept 2027 (Year 2) Sept 2028 (Year 3) EB-1 India Feb 1, 2023 Current Current Current EB-2 India July 15, 2013 Jan - Apr 2015 May - Aug 2016 Feb - June 2017 EB-3 India Nov 15, 2013 June - Oct 2015 Sept - Dec 2016 Jan - May 2017

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