AP Elections Observations

[Sam480]

TDP+ has huge advantage in the urban areas with Vote share anywhere between 55-60%, Around 55% in Greater Seema areas and 60% in the other areas

YCP vote share in urban areas is around 40%

YCP has advantage in Rural areas with Vote share anywhere between 47-52%, Around 50% in Greater Seema areas and 47% in other areas

TDP+ vote share in rural areas is between 42-47%

TDP+ has advantage among Male voters with almost 50-55% of the male population supporting TDP+

YCP has advantage among Female voters with almost 50-55% of the female population supporting YCP

The momentum was with TDP during December and January,However the momentum was with YCP February this year

Whoever has the momentum in March will continue the momentum into April and win the election

The vote share difference between the 2 parties <=3%

I have seen numbers from 2 pollsters , one is projecting ycp around 100 and tdp+ 70 and the other one exactly opposite i.e TDP+ around 100 and YCP around 70, not sure which one to trust

It will be a tough fight and whoever has the momentum this month will win

TDP+ Vote share percentage in rural areas > YCP Vote share percentage in Urban areas

If BJP is in alliance with TDP than its advantage TDP

Most of the Sarpanches/Mptc/ZPTC are against Govt because of being neglicted, pending contract bills and importance to Volunteer System, At the same time people are happy with the volunteer system

@Mancode @Android_Halwa @Sucker @futureofandhra @Bendapudi_english @reality

[ARYA]

11 minutes ago, Sam480 said:

TDP+ has huge advantage in the urban areas with Vote share anywhere between 55-60%, Around 55% in Greater Seema areas and 60% in the other areas

YCP vote share in urban areas is around 40%

YCP has advantage in Rural areas with Vote share anywhere between 47-52%, Around 50% in Greater Seema areas and 47% in other areas

TDP+ vote share in rural areas is between 40-45%

TDP+ has advantage among Male voters with almost 50-55% of the male population supporting TDP+

YCP has advantage among Female voters with almost 50-55% of the female population supporting YCP

The momentum was with TDP during December and January,However the momentum was with YCP February this year

Whoever has the momentum in March will continue the momentum into April and win the election

The vote share difference between the 2 parties <=3%

I have seen numbers from 2 pollsters , one is projecting ycp around 100 and tdp+ 70 and the other one exactly opposite i.e TDP+ around 100 and YCP around 70, not sure which one to trust

It will be a tough fight and whoever has the momentum this month will win

TDP+ Vote share percentage in rural areas > YCP Vote share percentage in Urban areas

If BJP is in alliance with TDP than its advantage TDP

@Mancode @Android_Halwa @Sucker @futureofandhra @Bendapudi_english @reality

Tdp has close to 65-75% in urban areas

tdp has close to 49-55% in rural areas

[Mancode]

tdp janasena alliance kottesindi bro , unless any miracle happens ...

govt marudhii..

and they will rule for 10 yrs ..even thay had simple majority this time, jaggad party ki time degarapadindi ...it will dusted eternally... if cbn dont make any mistakes... politically

the reason being ycp cadre is unhappy ..with jagan , election win or lose doesnt matter if you have strong structure and cadre support , gaali itu mallithe malli gelvochu , kani cadre is done

[YSRLKJagan]

46 minutes ago, Mancode said:

tdp janasena alliance kottesindi bro , unless any miracle happens ...

govt marudhii..

and they will rule for 10 yrs ..even thay had simple majority this time, jaggad party ki time degarapadindi ...it will dusted eternally... if cbn dont make any mistakes... politically

the reason being ycp cadre is unhappy ..with jagan , election win or lose doesnt matter if you have strong structure and cadre support , gaali itu mallithe malli gelvochu , kani cadre is done

Ba all converted kukkas are with jagan this time

[Mancode]

2 minutes ago, YSRLKJagan said:

Ba all converted kukkas are with jagan this time

some part of them will move away

[Sam480]

53 minutes ago, Mancode said:

tdp janasena alliance kottesindi bro , unless any miracle happens ...

govt marudhii..

and they will rule for 10 yrs ..even thay had simple majority this time, jaggad party ki time degarapadindi ...it will dusted eternally... if cbn dont make any mistakes... politically

the reason being ycp cadre is unhappy ..with jagan , election win or lose doesnt matter if you have strong structure and cadre support , gaali itu mallithe malli gelvochu , kani cadre is done

Had to wait for 2-3 weeks to comment on the 1st part, However i agree with the 2nd part that cadre is unhappy because of being sidelined by the volunteer system, The govt is depending alot on the volunteer system and because of that the Sarpanches,mptc,zptc and cadre are feeling neglected, On top of that the govt dint pay the bills for the contract works done by the 2nd and 3rd tier party leaders

[Mancode]

5 minutes ago, Sam480 said:

Had to wait for 2-3 weeks to comment on the 1st part, However i agree with the 2nd part that cadre is unhappy because of being sidelined by the volunteer system, The govt is depending alot on the volunteer system and because of that the Sarpanches,mptc,zptc and cadre are feeling neglected, On top of that the govt dint pay the bills for the contract works done by the 2nd and 3rd tier party leaders

yes isari power lo unadu kabatti election cheskogaladu by bribing cadre , but e 5 yrs jarigindi vallu antha easy ga marchipotharu ankovatledu

[Android_Halwa]

1 hour ago, Sam480 said:

TDP+ has huge advantage in the urban areas with Vote share anywhere between 55-60%, Around 55% in Greater Seema areas and 60% in the other areas

YCP vote share in urban areas is around 40%

YCP has advantage in Rural areas with Vote share anywhere between 47-52%, Around 50% in Greater Seema areas and 47% in other areas

TDP+ vote share in rural areas is between 40-45%

TDP+ has advantage among Male voters with almost 50-55% of the male population supporting TDP+

YCP has advantage among Female voters with almost 50-55% of the female population supporting YCP

The momentum was with TDP during December and January,However the momentum was with YCP February this year

Whoever has the momentum in March will continue the momentum into April and win the election

The vote share difference between the 2 parties <=3%

I have seen numbers from 2 pollsters , one is projecting ycp around 100 and tdp+ 70 and the other one exactly opposite i.e TDP+ around 100 and YCP around 70, not sure which one to trust

It will be a tough fight and whoever has the momentum this month will win

TDP+ Vote share percentage in rural areas > YCP Vote share percentage in Urban areas

If BJP is in alliance with TDP than its advantage TDP

@Mancode @Android_Halwa @Sucker @futureofandhra @Bendapudi_english @reality

So, this Urban-Rural vote is a myth. There may be some reality in the observations but a party dominating the urban landscape is as good as a myth. 

In major urban centers aithe up to 50%-60% of the resident voters are non-locals and a majority of them have their vote registered elsewhere, mostly in their villages. In smaller urban centers la kuda more or less this percentage remains similar. 

Oka surveyor vachi urban center la opinion adigithe, the end result may not be on par with the actual outcome.

[Anta Assamey]

Election Commission evadini tight chestundi...it will decide the elections...

[Android_Halwa]

24 minutes ago, Sam480 said:

Had to wait for 2-3 weeks to comment on the 1st part, However i agree with the 2nd part that cadre is unhappy because of being sidelined by the volunteer system, The govt is depending alot on the volunteer system and because of that the Sarpanches,mptc,zptc and cadre are feeling neglected, On top of that the govt dint pay the bills for the contract works done by the 2nd and 3rd tier party leaders

Irrespective of which way the care thinks about the present situation, here is the scenario...

YCP cadre ni neglect chesinaru ani, side line ayinaru ani TDP ki vote veyaru kada, YCP odhu ani TDP ki vote vesthe vachevi kuda potayi kada..At the moment such issues may appear to be concerning but as we move closer to the election date, the sidelined cadre will be more than happy to vote to their home party than to vote out.

 

[mustang302]

28 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

So, this Urban-Rural vote is a myth. There may be some reality in the observations but a party dominating the urban landscape is as good as a myth. 

In major urban centers aithe up to 50%-60% of the resident voters are non-locals and a majority of them have their vote registered elsewhere, mostly in their villages. In smaller urban centers la kuda more or less this percentage remains similar. 

Oka surveyor vachi urban center la opinion adigithe, the end result may not be on par with the actual outcome.

exacty..ala urban rural anukuntae KCR super majority tho gelichaevaadu...1 cr acre ki water supplied..one acre ki 1cr profit ichae capcisum farming tips cheppadu..rivers chala thavvinchadu,chala companies teesukonivachadu...jobs generate chesadu..yuvaraju KTR ithae suits vesukoni prapanchanni chuttadu TG kosam, TG prajala kosam..!survey lu kooda kcr vuncle ee saari kooda confirm annaru...scene cut chestae TG janalu kukkani minginattu mingaru TG lo...!!

[mustang302]

15 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

Irrespective of which way the care thinks about the present situation, here is the scenario...

YCP cadre ni neglect chesinaru ani, side line ayinaru ani TDP ki vote veyaru kada, YCP odhu ani TDP ki vote vesthe vachevi kuda potayi kada..At the moment such issues may appear to be concerning but as we move closer to the election date, the sidelined cadre will be more than happy to vote to their home party than to vote out.

 

unless they have done some gundaism against anti YCP janam  in the past dreaming jagans rule will be forever n ever vuncle.!!

[Anta Assamey]

40 minutes ago, Android_Halwa said:

 

Nee prediction enti AP elections ki...

[Android_Halwa]

3 minutes ago, Anta Assamey said:

Nee prediction enti AP elections ki...

Chandranna rajyam…Chandrodayam…

[Android_Halwa]

11 minutes ago, mustang302 said:

unless they have done some gundaism against anti YCP janam  in the past dreaming jagans rule will be forever n ever vuncle.!!

For ever ? Hmm…Veetine pulka deams antaru, sponsored by visionary.