MysoreJackson Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 18 hours ago, krishnaaa said: RDW is the only space stock I invested in. Its my number 1 position Cool! What price target do you have in mind for RDW? Trump focusing on space sector could be a major boosting factor with Elon on his ear … Quote
Variety_Pullayya Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 these tariffs will tank the market in my opinion. any thoughts? Quote
mustang302 Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Variety_Pullayya said: these tariffs will tank the market in my opinion. any thoughts? Monday, blood bath 100%. ETFs will be safe. 1 Quote
krishnaaa Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 9 hours ago, MysoreJackson said: Cool! What price target do you have in mind for RDW? Trump focusing on space sector could be a major boosting factor with Elon on his ear … Not selling till it reaches 1500 atleast (100B Market cap) Quote
krishnaaa Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 4 hours ago, Konebhar6 said: Blood bath for sure on Monday. Some companies like ELF have already fell a lot pricing in these Tariffs. Quote
Popular Post krishnaaa Posted February 2 Popular Post Report Posted February 2 Here is the writeup as promised. Format might not be polished....do concentrate on the matter instead. Back in 2021, I was searching for potential disruptors which would do well in next 5-10 years. During that time everyone was interested in Space Launch companies like SPCE, SpaceX ,Blue Origin etc. There was no way to invest in SpaceX and Blue Origin and SPCE was overvalued. I didn't want to line up where there was already a huge crowd. So I thought, why not go a step futher. After launch, next step would be setting up infrastructure. That is when I started researching Space infrastructure companies and came across a SPAC named GNPK (Genesis Park). Bought a small amount of GNPK shares and started tracking it while I research more. By then everyone knew about Elon musk and what he did with Paypal and TSLA. I wanted to know what was being done at SpaceX. He was talking about reusable rockets which would reduce the launch costs by 80%. I started looking at launch cost per KG. It was more than $10000/kg and was previously slowly increasing but then it dropped to below $2000 after SpaceX https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-cost-of-space-flight/ Space industry had been on a standstill and even became worse. US sent people onto moon in 1969 and then it stopped there even with better technology. As per Elon's observation, technology doesn't automatically improve. We lost ancient tech like pyramids,aqueducts etc. We will have to make conscious effort to make things happen. https://x.com/StartupArchive_/status/1764365723348988236 Space industry was plaqued by cost plus contracts. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/05/nasa-chief-says-cost-plus-contracts-are-a-plague-on-the-space-agency/ A "cost plus contract" in the space industry refers to a type of agreement where a space company is reimbursed for all the expenses incurred during a project, plus an additional fixed fee as profit, essentially meaning the government or agency pays for all costs associated with a project, regardless of how much they are, with the contractor receiving a set percentage on top of those costs, which can sometimes lead to higher overall project costs due to less incentive for cost control. There was no incentive for companies like Boeing and other space/defense companies to innovate or to bring the costs down if they are paid even if they fail. I have also read the book "Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson", the same writer who wrote Steve Jobs autobiography. He would shadow his subject and talk to everyone before he writes. Elon Musk sued NASA when it awarded contract to a company as it feared that the company would go bankrupt if they don't give that contract. Elon sued saying that NASA is not in the business of propping up companies and contracts should be awarded based on merit and money shouldn't be given when there was a failure. Elon ended up winning in court and there was bidding in which SpaceX won 80% of the contract. During that time government agencies were also rotting with officials with backward mindsets who were against awarding contracts to private space companies. SpaceX had to fight beaurocracy at every step. Elon also reduced the cost of the rockets tremendously. He first thought of buying rockets for cheap from Russia. But he was asked for bribe at gunpoint, asked for exorbitant amounts and then a Russian designer spit on his shoes. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/1v6n6c/elons_insane_experiences_buying_refurbished_icbms/ All the while he was reading books on Rockets. https://www.tanayj.com/p/decoding-elon-musk "Rockets had an extremely high idiot index. Musk began calculating the cost of carbon fiber, metal, fuel, and other materials that went into them. The finished product, using the current manufacturing methods, cost at least fifty times more than that. If humanity was going to get to Mars, the technology of rockets must radically improve. And relying on used rockets, especially old ones from Russia, was not going to push the technology forward. So on the flight home from Russia, he pulled out his computer and started making spreadsheets that detailed all of the materials and costs for building a midsize rocket. Cantrell and Griffin, sitting in the row behind him, ordered drinks and laughed. “What the do you think that idiot-savant is doing up there?” Griffin asked Cantrell. Musk turned around and gave them an answer. “Hey, guys,” he said, showing them the spreadsheet, “I think we can build this rocket ourselves.” Even during manufacturing, he reduced the cost by questioning every spec and using cheaper materials everywhere ..... like using a 30$ valve used in cars instead of $150000 valves, modifying HVAC system used in a home to cool down rocket instead of using standard $5 million one used by NASA etc. Applied first principles thinking whereever he can. He was under tremendous pressure when the first 3 launches didn't go as planned. He had lot of stress at Tesla as well. He was yelling in his sleep and vomiting in the middle of the night due to high amount of stress. He made the designers sit near the manufacturing line to see how complex it is to manufacture stuff they designed. Bought car assembly line type of manufacturing into space rocket manufacturing to reduce costs etc. When such revolution was happening, space is bound to explode. Coming back to Genesis Park, it changed its name to Redwire and had accounting issues and the stock price fell from its peak of 13$ all the way down to 2$. One thing I noticed though was that, whoever wanted to go into space, they were giving contract to Redwire. Redwire had contracts with Boeing, NASA, Blue Origin , SpaceX ,Axiom Space(To setup a studio for next Mission Impossible move in space) etc. This reinforced my thought that Redwire would become huge if there is more volume in space and more volume is bound to come with lower space launch costs. One might think that it would be far away and when I talked to my friends they were of the opinion that it would take atleast 10 years. But the stock market is forward looking. Which means that if they realize volume is going to increases, investors invest based on DCF(Discounted Cashflow Model). It would be too late to invest after people found out. So I thought its better to be little early. So I kept accumulating in 2022 and 2023. I have been listening to every Redwire conference call twice and whatever they said they would do in the the the previous conference calls was happening everytime. They said that they do have profit margins like 23% but were investing in growth by buying new manufacturing facilities and retooling them. This would mean showing loss every quarter but by a very small amount so that they don't overspend and have a longer runway. This is what I say in the numbers as well. Since last quarter they have been talking about moving up the value chain into VLEO and other completely built units instead of just components. VLEO satellite manufacturing in itself is 220 Bil Total Addressable market by 2028 for which Redwire is in a pretty good position to be a leader. The bought Hera systems which was already profitable to help towards this goal It is in talks with drug companies for backend royalties for helping them develop using Redwire's Pilboxes. In addition to that, its Roll out solar panels(ROSA) already installed in International Space Station(ISS), 3D printing tech(D printers and Zeblan material to 3D print tools already in use on ISS), Greenhouse in space, Robotic Arms to disassemble satellites in space, Antennas, sun sensors(used in mars rovers),equipment to grow human organs in space etc all of them have tremendous potential and can be mass manufactured once space volume goes up. Recent acquisition of Edge Autonomy(another profitable company) makes it a prime contractor for defense and more than half of the components can be reused for VLEO ....so they can dual purpose the Edge Autonomy facility and have it run on full capacity which is huge. Its still cheap with less than 4 times sales and is going to be profitable now....unless they plan to accelerate their growth further which is great. As always do your own research before making any investment 3 Quote
human1234 Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 EY chief economist Greg Daco estimates US GDP would contract by 1.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 if the tariffs kick in as they would "dampen" consumer spending and business investment. Inflation would rise by about 0.7% in the first quarter, Daco projects. Because of tarifds Quote
human1234 Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 Just now, human1234 said: EY chief economist Greg Daco estimates US GDP would contract by 1.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 if the tariffs kick in as they would "dampen" consumer spending and business investment. Inflation would rise by about 0.7% in the first quarter, Daco projects. Because of tarifds https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariffs-potential-aftershocks-top-leaders-prepare-for-the-worst-140451136.html Quote
Anta Assamey Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 4 hours ago, krishnaaa said: Not selling till it reaches 1500 atleast (100B Market cap) Ante 100 times avvali.. Are you sure.. Right number to enter cheppu... Quote
aiteok Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 1 hour ago, krishnaaa said: Here is the writeup as promised. Format might not be polished....do concentrate on the matter instead. Back in 2021, I was searching for potential disruptors which would do well in next 5-10 years. During that time everyone was interested in Space Launch companies like SPCE, SpaceX ,Blue Origin etc. There was no way to invest in SpaceX and Blue Origin and SPCE was overvalued. I didn't want to line up where there was already a huge crowd. So I thought, why not go a step futher. After launch, next step would be setting up infrastructure. That is when I started researching Space infrastructure companies and came across a SPAC named GNPK (Genesis Park). Bought a small amount of GNPK shares and started tracking it while I research more. By then everyone knew about Elon musk and what he did with Paypal and TSLA. I wanted to know what was being done at SpaceX. He was talking about reusable rockets which would reduce the launch costs by 80%. I started looking at launch cost per KG. It was more than $10000/kg and was previously slowly increasing but then it dropped to below $2000 after SpaceX https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-cost-of-space-flight/ Space industry had been on a standstill and even became worse. US sent people onto moon in 1969 and then it stopped there even with better technology. As per Elon's observation, technology doesn't automatically improve. We lost ancient tech like pyramids,aqueducts etc. We will have to make conscious effort to make things happen. https://x.com/StartupArchive_/status/1764365723348988236 Space industry was plaqued by cost plus contracts. https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/05/nasa-chief-says-cost-plus-contracts-are-a-plague-on-the-space-agency/ A "cost plus contract" in the space industry refers to a type of agreement where a space company is reimbursed for all the expenses incurred during a project, plus an additional fixed fee as profit, essentially meaning the government or agency pays for all costs associated with a project, regardless of how much they are, with the contractor receiving a set percentage on top of those costs, which can sometimes lead to higher overall project costs due to less incentive for cost control. There was no incentive for companies like Boeing and other space/defense companies to innovate or to bring the costs down if they are paid even if they fail. I have also read the book "Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson", the same writer who wrote Steve Jobs autobiography. He would shadow his subject and talk to everyone before he writes. Elon Musk sued NASA when it awarded contract to a company as it feared that the company would go bankrupt if they don't give that contract. Elon sued saying that NASA is not in the business of propping up companies and contracts should be awarded based on merit and money shouldn't be given when there was a failure. Elon ended up winning in court and there was bidding in which SpaceX won 80% of the contract. During that time government agencies were also rotting with officials with backward mindsets who were against awarding contracts to private space companies. SpaceX had to fight beaurocracy at every step. Elon also reduced the cost of the rockets tremendously. He first thought of buying rockets for cheap from Russia. But he was asked for bribe at gunpoint, asked for exorbitant amounts and then a Russian designer spit on his shoes. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/1v6n6c/elons_insane_experiences_buying_refurbished_icbms/ All the while he was reading books on Rockets. https://www.tanayj.com/p/decoding-elon-musk "Rockets had an extremely high idiot index. Musk began calculating the cost of carbon fiber, metal, fuel, and other materials that went into them. The finished product, using the current manufacturing methods, cost at least fifty times more than that. If humanity was going to get to Mars, the technology of rockets must radically improve. And relying on used rockets, especially old ones from Russia, was not going to push the technology forward. So on the flight home from Russia, he pulled out his computer and started making spreadsheets that detailed all of the materials and costs for building a midsize rocket. Cantrell and Griffin, sitting in the row behind him, ordered drinks and laughed. “What the do you think that idiot-savant is doing up there?” Griffin asked Cantrell. Musk turned around and gave them an answer. “Hey, guys,” he said, showing them the spreadsheet, “I think we can build this rocket ourselves.” Even during manufacturing, he reduced the cost by questioning every spec and using cheaper materials everywhere ..... like using a 30$ valve used in cars instead of $150000 valves, modifying HVAC system used in a home to cool down rocket instead of using standard $5 million one used by NASA etc. Applied first principles thinking whereever he can. He was under tremendous pressure when the first 3 launches didn't go as planned. He had lot of stress at Tesla as well. He was yelling in his sleep and vomiting in the middle of the night due to high amount of stress. He made the designers sit near the manufacturing line to see how complex it is to manufacture stuff they designed. Bought car assembly line type of manufacturing into space rocket manufacturing to reduce costs etc. When such revolution was happening, space is bound to explode. Coming back to Genesis Park, it changed its name to Redwire and had accounting issues and the stock price fell from its peak of 13$ all the way down to 2$. One thing I noticed though was that, whoever wanted to go into space, they were giving contract to Redwire. Redwire had contracts with Boeing, NASA, Blue Origin , SpaceX ,Axiom Space(To setup a studio for next Mission Impossible move in space) etc. This reinforced my thought that Redwire would become huge if there is more volume in space and more volume is bound to come with lower space launch costs. One might think that it would be far away and when I talked to my friends they were of the opinion that it would take atleast 10 years. But the stock market is forward looking. Which means that if they realize volume is going to increases, investors invest based on DCF(Discounted Cashflow Model). It would be too late to invest after people found out. So I thought its better to be little early. So I kept accumulating in 2022 and 2023. I have been listening to every Redwire conference call twice and whatever they said they would do in the the the previous conference calls was happening everytime. They said that they do have profit margins like 23% but were investing in growth by buying new manufacturing facilities and retooling them. This would mean showing loss every quarter but by a very small amount so that they don't overspend and have a longer runway. This is what I say in the numbers as well. Since last quarter they have been talking about moving up the value chain into VLEO and other completely built units instead of just components. VLEO satellite manufacturing in itself is 220 Bil Total Addressable market by 2028 for which Redwire is in a pretty good position to be a leader. The bought Hera systems which was already profitable to help towards this goal It is in talks with drug companies for backend royalties for helping them develop using Redwire's Pilboxes. In addition to that, its Roll out solar panels(ROSA) already installed in International Space Station(ISS), 3D printing tech(D printers and Zeblan material to 3D print tools already in use on ISS), Greenhouse in space, Robotic Arms to disassemble satellites in space, Antennas, sun sensors(used in mars rovers),equipment to grow human organs in space etc all of them have tremendous potential and can be mass manufactured once space volume goes up. Recent acquisition of Edge Autonomy(another profitable company) makes it a prime contractor for defense and more than half of the components can be reused for VLEO ....so they can dual purpose the Edge Autonomy facility and have it run on full capacity which is huge. Its still cheap with less than 4 times sales and is going to be profitable now....unless they plan to accelerate their growth further which is great. As always do your own research before making any investment Super bro, wonderful writeup, what about risks, headwinds or challenges? Quote
krishnaaa Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 1 hour ago, Anta Assamey said: Ante 100 times avvali.. Are you sure.. Right number to enter cheppu... Already gave my reasons Every dip is a buying opportunity long term. Quote
krishnaaa Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 42 minutes ago, aiteok said: Super bro, wonderful writeup, what about risks, headwinds or challenges? Biggest risk is Elon Musk's health. He has been working too hard. Hope he lives a long and health life Quote
meranaam Posted February 2 Report Posted February 2 5 hours ago, krishnaaa said: Not selling till it reaches 1500 atleast (100B Market cap) what's u r entry price in RDW baa Quote
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