Jubilee Hills: Silent voting may upset exit polls?

November 12

Polling for the high-profile Jubilee Hills assembly by-election ended on Tuesday evening, and the majority of exit polls indicate a clear edge for the ruling Congress.

The survey data suggests that Congress could secure a lead of 2% to 8% over the BRS.

The constituency recorded 48.24% voter turnout, slightly higher than 47% in the 2023 assembly elections.

Analysts attribute the increased turnout to the Congress–MIM coordination, which mobilized minority and lower-middle-class voters effectively.

In contrast, BRS is believed to have lost a portion of its previous voter base, while BJP’s vote share reportedly fell from 14% to as low as 6%, according to multiple survey agencies.

This indicates that nearly 8% of votes may have shifted — a swing likely decisive in determining the final result.

Political observers note that if the BJP’s lost votes have transferred en bloc to the Congress, it could seal the latter’s victory. However, if the swing split between the Congress and BRS, the result could be tighter than projected.

At the booth level, BRS leaders claim parity with Congress in Erragadda division and a narrow lead in Borabanda, while hoping to offset losses through a larger margin in Shaikpet.

Exit polls predict that Congress may end up with a 4–5% lead overall, though both parties acknowledge an estimated 2% of “silent voting” that could still surprise all sides.

The final outcome, due soon, is being watched with intense anticipation.