S&P 500 returns odd vs even years

[Sam480]

Lifted from Indianexpats

 

I downloaded an Excel sheet with the last 100 years of S&P 500 returns.

Then it was just a matter of data mining. Having fun 

One comparison I ran was whether odd and even years have different returns.

As we all know, we have elections in even years (presidential and midterms).

Odd years are generally drama-free.

So does this show up in the S&P 500?

You bet — but with some caveats.

Not only is there a clear directional trend, but in the modern era it becomes statistically meaningful.

 1. Last 50 Years (1976–2025)

Odd-year average return: 17.75%
Even-year average return: 8.78%
Difference: +8.97%
 Statistically significant

 2. Last 30 Years (1996–2025)

Odd-year average: 17.87%
Even-year average: 5.84%
Difference: +12.02%

 Borderline significance, but the direction is very strong

 3. Full 100 Years (1926–2025)

Odd-year average: 14.82%
Even-year average: 9.83%
Difference: +5.00%

 Not significant — but the direction is the same upward trend

 Quartile Analysis Tells the Same Story

Quartile analysis here means splitting all S&P 500 yearly returns into four performance bands (worst 25%, typical 25–50%, strong 50–75%, and best 25%) and comparing how each band behaves in odd vs. even years.

Every quartile is higher in odd years than even years.

The top quartile (Q3) difference is statistically significant:

Odd years’ strongest 25% of returns blow even years out of the water.

This means the market’s biggest rallies historically cluster in odd-numbered years.

This is just a bored Sunday analysis — so don’t bet your farm on it 

But we are going into an even year next year.
Invest more. 2027 will be turbo-charged.

[Redarya]

58 minutes ago, Sam480 said:

Lifted from Indianexpats

 

I downloaded an Excel sheet with the last 100 years of S&P 500 returns.

Then it was just a matter of data mining. Having fun 

One comparison I ran was whether odd and even years have different returns.

As we all know, we have elections in even years (presidential and midterms).

Odd years are generally drama-free.

So does this show up in the S&P 500?

You bet — but with some caveats.

Not only is there a clear directional trend, but in the modern era it becomes statistically meaningful.

 1. Last 50 Years (1976–2025)

Odd-year average return: 17.75%
Even-year average return: 8.78%
Difference: +8.97%
 Statistically significant

 2. Last 30 Years (1996–2025)

Odd-year average: 17.87%
Even-year average: 5.84%
Difference: +12.02%

 Borderline significance, but the direction is very strong

 3. Full 100 Years (1926–2025)

Odd-year average: 14.82%
Even-year average: 9.83%
Difference: +5.00%

 Not significant — but the direction is the same upward trend

 Quartile Analysis Tells the Same Story

Quartile analysis here means splitting all S&P 500 yearly returns into four performance bands (worst 25%, typical 25–50%, strong 50–75%, and best 25%) and comparing how each band behaves in odd vs. even years.

Every quartile is higher in odd years than even years.

The top quartile (Q3) difference is statistically significant:

Odd years’ strongest 25% of returns blow even years out of the water.

This means the market’s biggest rallies historically cluster in odd-numbered years.

This is just a bored Sunday analysis — so don’t bet your farm on it 

But we are going into an even year next year.
Invest more. 2027 will be turbo-charged.

2026 bhadram antav ayithe. Mogga gudisi potaru one generation in 2026