5 reasons Y he’s ahead

[kantharao]

Café discussions, pre-poll surveys and conventional wisdom all put him ahead in the race to Mandate 2009. We discuss five reasons why Y S Rajasekhara Reddy is being seen as the strongest incumbent to have donned poll gear in AP since the days of one-party rule in the 1970s.

Incumbency is his advantage

YSR is going into this election on the strength of a staggering array of welfare and development projects, be it the audacious Jalayagnam, the very necessary Pavala Vaddi or the stubbornly populist free power. Throughout his term, in the face of right-wing alarm, YSR never wavered in his commitment to welfarism, going to the extent of using innovative  methods to raise funds for Jalayagnam. YSR used his incumbency well where Chandrababu Naidu did not. Sticking to a rural-agrarian vision, YSR trained his focus on winning the votes of people who vote whereas Chandrababu Naidu wooed voters who do not. Where Naidu was lulled by the hosannas of the World Bank, YSR gave a wide berth to the World Economic Forum.  Does welfarism win votes? If it didn’t, why is Chandrababu Naidu joining the competition, perhaps too late and with too little?

The waning of naxalism in AP

Ever since the rise of the naxalites in rural AP, they have played a decisive role in unseating several incumbents – in 1989, 1994, and 2004. The naxalites have been traditionally hostile to all ruling parties irrespective of ideology, but the difference this time is that they seem to be in no position to – or perhaps reluctant – to scuttle the chances of the chief minister. The state has come a long way since the days when police-naxalite warfare was front page news. Not any more. Chandrababu Naidu suffered at the hustings in 2004 because he was menaced by the naxalites. YSR is ahead because he has no such menace to contend with.

The opposition is divided

The Mahakutami is a united front in name only. The seat-sharing process has brought out in the open sharp differences within the front. This is only a reflection of the basic contradiction within the Mahakutami on basic issues such as Telangana. One party, the TRS, is stauchly for a separate Telangana. The TDP is half this and half that. The CPM, is unapologetically against Telangana. The CPI’s support for Telangana is lukewarm at best.  Instead of going to the Telangana voter with coherence, the Mahakutami is approaching him with confusion in its own mind. Moreover, the TDP’s late dalliance with separatism is likely to win it no support in coastal Andhra and certainly not in Rayalaseema.

Chiranjeevi

While the Mahakutami bills itself as a united front against the Congress, it isn’t. There’s still the Praja Rajyam out on a limb out there. Chiranjeevi’s charisma may not be strong enough to generate an NTR-like wave in all of AP, but he still can split the anti-Congress vote enough to put paid to the best laid plans of the Mahakutami. Moreover, Chiranjeevi is trying to stitch together a coalition of middle-castes, which, until now, have been traditional supporters of the TDP. Migration of such groups to a Chiranjeevi coalition can only be at the cost of the TDP.  Chandrababu Naidu knows this. Therefore, his daily cussing against the Megastar.

YSR is the agenda-setter

Finally, it’s an electoral truism that the vote will go to the leader who sets the agenda. Barack Obama seized the agenda in the US election and he won it. YSR set the agenda in 2004 and he won. The UPA stole the agenda from the BJP in 2004, and they won. But now in 2009, the TDP does not act but only reacts to what the Congress does. The TDP is at best only playing catch-up politics, coming up with increments to the Congress’ poll promises. it is not convincing. That’s not how elections are won. 

[karthikyk]

*=:I  agree with you...... this is the main reason why he is going to win..........