Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

[tacobell fan]

Summary

I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

The Fed's plan is going to fail; it was always obvious it was going to fail; and it is now, in fact, failing in exactly the manner I've said it would.

I think a big, fat recession in 2019 could be the best thing that ever happened, even though it would be the worst thing that ever happened.

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that event fulfilled, I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

To confirm my bearish claim on the market's crash:

Several leading stock market indexes around the globe endured bear market declines in 2018. In the U.S. in December, the small cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) bottomed out 27.2% below its prior high. The widely-followed U.S. large cap barometer, the S&P 500 Index (SPX), just missed entering bear market territory, halting its decline 19.8% below its high.

 

St. Louis Fed

That means two of the most accurate predictors of recession, according to the Fed - yield-curve inversions and unemployment trend changes - are now lined up on the same side for a 2019 recession.

On average, since 1969, the unemployment rate trough occurred nine months before the NBER-determined recession trough, while the yield curve inversion occurred 10 months before…. The minimum lead times were one month for the unemployment trough and five months for the yield curve inversion.

Full Details :     https://seekingalpha.com/article/4253116-tick-tick-talk-2019-recession-coming

 

[JANASENA]

Nee yavva ! neninka job aa ekkala appude recession aa ... eppudu vashtundanta bro matter in 2 lines Plz. Thank you.

[Original Profile]

2015 nunchi idey gola....

[tacobell fan]

Just now, Original Profile said:

2015 nunchi idey gola....

Not really. Until last year people are bullish that there is no recession. If you talk to 90/100 people they all are in agreement that it's coming. 

[tacobell fan]

1 minute ago, JANASENA said:

Nee yavva ! neninka job aa ekkala appude recession aa ... eppudu vashtundanta bro matter in 2 lines Plz. Thank you.

He just put the data in front of us. Some believe it, some don't.

[Raithu_bidda2]

waiting 200k to 250k eganam petti india lo dandha shuru chestha.....

 

[tacobell fan]

Just now, Raithu_bidda2 said:

waiting 200k to 250k eganam petti india lo dandha shuru chestha.....

What kind of Dandha brother

[Original Profile]

1 minute ago, tacobell fan said:

Not really. Until last year people are bullish that there is no recession. If you talk to 90/100 people they all are in agreement that it's coming. 

dude 2015 lo they said...recession comes every 7 years....last time 2008 lo vacchindhi kabatti 2015 annaru

2016 lo although market is going up....there were some articles saying its about to drop

2017 and 2018 ki market went to peak and they said its time for recession and housing prices will drop

[Hitman]

5 minutes ago, tacobell fan said:

Summary

I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

The Fed's plan is going to fail; it was always obvious it was going to fail; and it is now, in fact, failing in exactly the manner I've said it would.

I think a big, fat recession in 2019 could be the best thing that ever happened, even though it would be the worst thing that ever happened.

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that event fulfilled, I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

To confirm my bearish claim on the market's crash:

Several leading stock market indexes around the globe endured bear market declines in 2018. In the U.S. in December, the small cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) bottomed out 27.2% below its prior high. The widely-followed U.S. large cap barometer, the S&P 500 Index (SPX), just missed entering bear market territory, halting its decline 19.8% below its high.

 

St. Louis Fed

That means two of the most accurate predictors of recession, according to the Fed - yield-curve inversions and unemployment trend changes - are now lined up on the same side for a 2019 recession.

On average, since 1969, the unemployment rate trough occurred nine months before the NBER-determined recession trough, while the yield curve inversion occurred 10 months before…. The minimum lead times were one month for the unemployment trough and five months for the yield curve inversion.

Full Details :     https://seekingalpha.com/article/4253116-tick-tick-talk-2019-recession-coming

 

Index 26K కి రాగానే ఈ Recession అనడం , 24500 కి పడెయ్యడం , మల్ల 26K రావడం ..ఈ 2 years లో 3 టైమ్స్ జరిగింది ..pichalite 

[tacobell fan]

Just now, Original Profile said:

dude 2015 lo they said...recession comes every 7 years....last time 2008 lo vacchindhi kabatti 2015 annaru

2016 lo although market is going up....there were some articles saying its about to drop

2017 and 2018 ki market went to peak and they said its time for recession and housing prices will drop

Maybe we both are not in same boat sodara. At least none of the people i spoke ever thought about recession until last year. People are extremely bullish that it won't come.

[tacobell fan]

Just now, Hitman said:

Index 26K కి రాగానే ఈ Recession అనడం , 24500 కి పడెయ్యడం , మల్ల 26K రావడం ..ఈ 2 years లో 3 టైమ్స్ జరిగింది ..pichalite 

Yea, because people are holding it up, specially big tax cuts and other countries are funding to cover up. 

[Chinna84]

5 minutes ago, tacobell fan said:

Not really. Until last year people are bullish that there is no recession. If you talk to 90/100 people they all are in agreement that it's coming. 

monnatidhaaka thaatha impeachment ani cheppi hadavudi chesaaru....adhi flop ayyesariki, idhi kotthaga leputhunatlu oka chinna doubt  !!!

And hope the recession doesn't come !!

[LazyRohit]

Recession kadu kani market will have a slump by mid 2019 -- my prediction

[argadorn]

7 minutes ago, tacobell fan said:

Not really. Until last year people are bullish that there is no recession. If you talk to 90/100 people they all are in agreement that it's coming. 

madhi chinna uru man ... prathi shops lo malls lo minimum 150 vancies chusa in  this weekend ... i dont think there will be recession ....

[tacobell fan]

1 minute ago, Chinna84 said:

monnatidhaaka thaatha impeachment ani cheppi hadavudi chesaaru....adhi flop ayyesariki, idhi kotthaga leputhunatlu oka chinna doubt  !!!

And hope the recession doesn't come !!

investment doesn't have any political character this is a global impact where growth is stagnated.