hyperbole Posted February 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, Agnes said: Will Tesla beat the competition? I don't think so. after more than a decade in this space, they have less than 1% market share, and their CEO's insistence that they do everything inhouse makes them unprofitable. comparison's with Apple, Google are delusional. They became market leaders in no tme. the simple truth is, the tech (especially battery tech, but to an extent AI too) is not mature enough to declare winners already.I would certainly not bet on Tesla. You're not accounting for some crucual differences between EVs and ICE vehicles that will drastically accelerate EV adoption at rates greater than the usual vehicle replacement rates. EVs will be CHEAPER to buy than ICE vehicles within a few years due to dropping battery prices and simpler construction processes, and they're already significantly cheaper to own. Not having an EV will cost you money, and if you're a business, it will put you at a competitive cost disadvantage. If buying a new car will save you money over the long run than keeping your old one, the incentives are such that EV adoption rates will be enormous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agnes Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, hyperbole said: You're not accounting for some crucual differences between EVs and ICE vehicles that will drastically accelerate EV adoption at rates greater than the usual vehicle replacement rates. EVs will be CHEAPER to buy than ICE vehicles within a few years due to dropping battery prices and simpler construction processes, and they're already significantly cheaper to own. Not having an EV will cost you money, and if you're a business, it will put you at a competitive cost disadvantage. If buying a new car will save you money over the long run than keeping your old one, the incentives are such that EV adoption rates will be enormous I did account for it, and suggest Tesla exit the car manufacturing business and become a pure digital company that licenses car designs and sells good battery and AI systems. atleast then they can get some good research in battery tech without having to worry about expanding production and supplies.Right now, all the 'advantage' they have in battery tech is piggy backing off Panasonic's customized cells for them. The future is not in car manufacturing. unless there's a flying car, and one has to make fuel cells for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JambaKrantu Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 38 minutes ago, psycopk said: you can go upto 190 miles per charge.. thats a lot i say.. In cities like Atl and LA if you want to spend the whole day in the town, by evening you start worrying about running out of juice.. Also for a 8 hour drive like ATL to Florida or LA to SFO you have to plan for at least 2 charging areas and a few hours of stop over. Right now I don't feel comfortable with that.. but may be in 2 to 3 years, the charging speeds and charging stations will increase. Then may be.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agnes Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 And what happens if Fuel Cells becomes all the new rage in 5 yrs? lol. Tesla will go bankrupt. simple. Even Musk is not that efficient to turn his company around after investing in batteries to the brim. That Tesla will be successful or not is a toss up at this point. not an eventuality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agnes Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, hyperbole said: You're not accounting for some crucual differences between EVs and ICE vehicles that will drastically accelerate EV adoption at rates greater than the usual vehicle replacement rates. EVs will be CHEAPER to buy than ICE vehicles within a few years due to dropping battery prices and simpler construction processes, and they're already significantly cheaper to own. Not having an EV will cost you money, and if you're a business, it will put you at a competitive cost disadvantage. If buying a new car will save you money over the long run than keeping your old one, the incentives are such that EV adoption rates will be enormous Batteries are not like IC chips to get progressively better every year at a rate that will increase their range by a huge factor. you are not getting a 1000mile range battery anytime in the next 5yrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
idibezwada Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 51 minutes ago, Vaampire said: Google is parternering with volvo & several other companies. The point is Google is partnering with the makers who don't have the tech...y would they partner with a company which already has the tech Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agnes Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Tesla has opensourced large parts of its drivetrain already. They should leave the building of the car to local manufacturers and focus exclusively on high end cars, and batteries. aiming for battery tech, while wanting to come up with a mass market car is a cash burning game. Tesla is never making a profit this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agnes Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 The thing is, the big money is in directly selling to customers.That's where all the margin is. Tesla wouldn't give that up, to become a battery provider that is bitchslapped around by other car manufacturers. but it also means that Tesla is sailing on more boats at once, and hence will never be as profitable as its market cap suggests it might be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sattipandu Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 LoL experts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunkyfunky Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Agnes said: Will Tesla beat the competition? I don't think so. after more than a decade in this space, they have less than 1% market share, and their CEO's insistence that they do everything inhouse makes them unprofitable. comparison's with Apple, Google are delusional. They became market leaders in no tme. the simple truth is, the tech (especially battery tech, but to an extent AI too) is not mature enough to declare winners already.I would certainly not bet on Tesla. They have battery technicology that not everyone have and together with vertical integration their cars can squeeze more miles than any one else. AI and computer - easy for many companies to replicate. Amazon , FB , Goog and even small companies have custom chipset for AI Self driving - Tesla is alone in betting that the AI will soon mature enough to support FSD with radars and regular camera feed. Every other company doesn't believe this is the right approach and instead use expensive and bulky Lidar equipment. Elon musk says they are doing a mistake, they say Musk is crazy.. Only time will tell... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agnes Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, hunkyfunky said: They have battery technicology that not everyone have and together with vertical integration their cars can squeeze more miles than any one else. AI and computer - easy for many companies to replicate. Amazon , FB , Goog and even small companies have custom chipset for AI Self driving - Tesla is alone in betting that the AI will soon mature enough to support FSD with radars and regular camera feed. Every other company doesn't believe this is the right approach and instead use expensive and bulky Lidar equipment. Elon musk says they are doing a mistake, they say Musk is crazy.. Only time will tell... Its not such a big thing. just an accessory for which 1000s of suppliers will spring up if there's a market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agnes Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Even Musk agrees that Tesla stock is unrealistic. his fans don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhaigan Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 hours ago, AndhraneedSCS said: One Tesla has capacity to make 10M cars in a year like other automakers, may be they will be able to get the price even lower. Long way to go there though Tesla's sister companies are into everything. Their innovation is a lot, like solar roofs, space x,hyperloop ..etc overhyped ani cheppanu kani technology hyped soon they will have competition the person who architect ed Tesla into that shape is Elon Musk, elon musk ideas are completely different some Chinese auto makers are giving tough competition to Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vaampire Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 hours ago, idibezwada said: The point is Google is partnering with the makers who don't have the tech...y would they partner with a company which already has the tech Google is trying to sell android os to infotainment systems. Thats starting point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hunkyfunky Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Agnes said: Its not such a big thing. just an accessory for which 1000s of suppliers will spring up if there's a market. Nope, your cant add Lidar just like that. It's bulky and you need software to use it. Tesla sold 500k cars promising fsd with software update.. They are behind in delivering that by more than year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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