485 (GC), Ead , AP, Spillover issues

[Iriswest]

Chustu unte 2015 is not on the books anipistundi. 2015 will be the new 2010 for next few years.

[csrcsr]

6 minutes ago, Iriswest said:

Chustu unte 2015 is not on the books anipistundi. 2015 will be the new 2010 for next few years.

can you help me decode the below lifted from telegram did not understand anythung

 

 

 

Is your GC or I-485 turn comes in coming months? 

Read and help yourself!!

Let's look at the numbers. let's assume 20% is duplicate filing , both spouse working. multiply factor of 2.6 for spouse and one child.
2010 eb2 =>15,313, 20% cut=12,250 *2.6=36,751
2011 eb2 =>22,286,20% cut=17,828*2.6=53486
2012 eb2 => 22,311,20% cut =17,848*2.6=>53,546
2013eb2=>21,440,20%cut=17,152*2.6=51,456

2010eb3 =>6682,20%cut =>5345*2.6=>16036
2011 eb3=>6929,20%cut =5543*2.6=>16,629
2012 eb3 =>4110,20%cut =>3228*2.6=9864
2013 eb3 =>3455,20%cut =>2764*2.6=>8292
2014 eb3 =3878,20%cut=>3102*2.6=9307

total eb2 from 2010 to 2013=>195,239
total eb3 from 2010 to 2014=>60,128.

CO has moved filing date of eb2 to dec, 2011 , total of it is =>90,237( these folks are not downgraded )
Co has moved filing date of eb3 to Feb 2014=>60,128

you can see why eb3 dates are moving up, but not eb2 by looking at above numbers.

add these 2 totals 90237+ 60,128 =>150,345(this total is almost to the spillover we are getting next year).

now the funny part, eb2 2012 70% of downgraders shows up!

2012eb2=>17848*70%=>32,483, 

add this to  eb3=>93,601.

assuming uscis uses 100% of spillover visas => dates will clear until 2013 1st quarter for eb3. 2011 for eb2.

50% wastage=> eb2 will retro to 2011 1st quarter and eb3 retro to 2012 1st quarter

100% wastage=> eb2 will retro to 2010 2nd quarter.
eb3 will retro to 2011 3rd quarter.

eb2 will never move beyond 2011 dec or max 2012 mid by FY 2022

eb3 will never move beyond 2015 jan and possible retro once eb2 downgrade number shows up(it can retro any time when 2012,2013 eb2 downgrades shows up).

*EB3 retrogression timeline depends on EB2 to EB3 I-140 downgrade approval rate. More people run for premium and more faster data builds up and warrants faster retrogression.*

Source:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

[snoww]

9 minutes ago, csrcsr said:

can you help me decode the below lifted from telegram did not understand anythung

 

 

 

Is your GC or I-485 turn comes in coming months? 

Read and help yourself!!

Let's look at the numbers. let's assume 20% is duplicate filing , both spouse working. multiply factor of 2.6 for spouse and one child.
2010 eb2 =>15,313, 20% cut=12,250 *2.6=36,751
2011 eb2 =>22,286,20% cut=17,828*2.6=53486
2012 eb2 => 22,311,20% cut =17,848*2.6=>53,546
2013eb2=>21,440,20%cut=17,152*2.6=51,456

2010eb3 =>6682,20%cut =>5345*2.6=>16036
2011 eb3=>6929,20%cut =5543*2.6=>16,629
2012 eb3 =>4110,20%cut =>3228*2.6=9864
2013 eb3 =>3455,20%cut =>2764*2.6=>8292
2014 eb3 =3878,20%cut=>3102*2.6=9307

total eb2 from 2010 to 2013=>195,239
total eb3 from 2010 to 2014=>60,128.

CO has moved filing date of eb2 to dec, 2011 , total of it is =>90,237( these folks are not downgraded )
Co has moved filing date of eb3 to Feb 2014=>60,128

you can see why eb3 dates are moving up, but not eb2 by looking at above numbers.

add these 2 totals 90237+ 60,128 =>150,345(this total is almost to the spillover we are getting next year).

now the funny part, eb2 2012 70% of downgraders shows up!

2012eb2=>17848*70%=>32,483, 

add this to  eb3=>93,601.

assuming uscis uses 100% of spillover visas => dates will clear until 2013 1st quarter for eb3. 2011 for eb2.

50% wastage=> eb2 will retro to 2011 1st quarter and eb3 retro to 2012 1st quarter

100% wastage=> eb2 will retro to 2010 2nd quarter.
eb3 will retro to 2011 3rd quarter.

eb2 will never move beyond 2011 dec or max 2012 mid by FY 2022

eb3 will never move beyond 2015 jan and possible retro once eb2 downgrade number shows up(it can retro any time when 2012,2013 eb2 downgrades shows up).

*EB3 retrogression timeline depends on EB2 to EB3 I-140 downgrade approval rate. More people run for premium and more faster data builds up and warrants faster retrogression.*

Source:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

Don't waste your time decoding. Considering CO and uscis  themselves are completely clueless. It is going to be GC lottery like H1 lottery for people till 2016 PDs in near future. Some in those range will get GCs, some wont . No logics. 

[Iriswest]

6 minutes ago, snoww said:

Don't waste your time decoding. Considering CO and uscis  themselves are completely clueless. It is going to be GC lottery like H1 lottery for people till 2016 PDs in near future. Some in those range will get GCs, some wont . No logics. 

2016 varaku enduku le bhayya. 2015 vallake dikku ledu.

[Iriswest]

15 minutes ago, csrcsr said:

can you help me decode the below lifted from telegram did not understand anythung

 

 

 

Is your GC or I-485 turn comes in coming months? 

Read and help yourself!!

Let's look at the numbers. let's assume 20% is duplicate filing , both spouse working. multiply factor of 2.6 for spouse and one child.
2010 eb2 =>15,313, 20% cut=12,250 *2.6=36,751
2011 eb2 =>22,286,20% cut=17,828*2.6=53486
2012 eb2 => 22,311,20% cut =17,848*2.6=>53,546
2013eb2=>21,440,20%cut=17,152*2.6=51,456

2010eb3 =>6682,20%cut =>5345*2.6=>16036
2011 eb3=>6929,20%cut =5543*2.6=>16,629
2012 eb3 =>4110,20%cut =>3228*2.6=9864
2013 eb3 =>3455,20%cut =>2764*2.6=>8292
2014 eb3 =3878,20%cut=>3102*2.6=9307

total eb2 from 2010 to 2013=>195,239
total eb3 from 2010 to 2014=>60,128.

CO has moved filing date of eb2 to dec, 2011 , total of it is =>90,237( these folks are not downgraded )
Co has moved filing date of eb3 to Feb 2014=>60,128

you can see why eb3 dates are moving up, but not eb2 by looking at above numbers.

add these 2 totals 90237+ 60,128 =>150,345(this total is almost to the spillover we are getting next year).

now the funny part, eb2 2012 70% of downgraders shows up!

2012eb2=>17848*70%=>32,483, 

add this to  eb3=>93,601.

assuming uscis uses 100% of spillover visas => dates will clear until 2013 1st quarter for eb3. 2011 for eb2.

50% wastage=> eb2 will retro to 2011 1st quarter and eb3 retro to 2012 1st quarter

100% wastage=> eb2 will retro to 2010 2nd quarter.
eb3 will retro to 2011 3rd quarter.

eb2 will never move beyond 2011 dec or max 2012 mid by FY 2022

eb3 will never move beyond 2015 jan and possible retro once eb2 downgrade number shows up(it can retro any time when 2012,2013 eb2 downgrades shows up).

*EB3 retrogression timeline depends on EB2 to EB3 I-140 downgrade approval rate. More people run for premium and more faster data builds up and warrants faster retrogression.*

Source:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

Wastage and slow processing valla there is no chance for beyond 2015 antunnadu anthega.

[snoww]

3 minutes ago, Iriswest said:

2016 varaku enduku le bhayya. 2015 vallake dikku ledu.

Because Charlie vuncle will move eb3 dates to that date till he gets 140 downgrades data. 

[csrcsr]

2 minutes ago, Iriswest said:

Wastage and slow processing valla there is no chance for beyond 2015 antunnadu anthega.

I don't understand he is saying some rhing related to 140 downgrades how will more downgrade approval will impact these movement naaku ardam kaadu are they going to remove a downgrade number from eb2 queue or they going to consider both and make them struck for both queues

[Steelers]

2012/13 will be the new 2009/10 going forward (based on the pace USCIS is working). ee downgrade numbers anni vachinnaaka EB2 and EB3 dates kooda ping pong aaduthay between 2012-13.

 

ee process lo 485 tho paatu medicals submit chesina kontha mandhi 2014 lucky fellows ki GC vachesthadhi. 

[csrcsr]

2 minutes ago, Steelers said:

2012/13 will be the new 2009/10 going forward (based on the pace USCIS is working). ee downgrade numbers anni vachinnaaka EB2 and EB3 dates kooda ping pong aaduthay between 2012-13.

Not every body malli andulo 2011 2012 can get gc but 2010 eb2 might struck for ever emi logico adike teliyali

[Iriswest]

6 minutes ago, snoww said:

Because Charlie vuncle will move eb3 dates to that date till he gets 140 downgrades data. 

Move cheyyanu 2016 ki ani telchi cheppesadu ga monna. Inkem movement. Again Jan 2015 will be the new DOF for EB3 in FY22. Will retrogress in Q2 or Q3.

[csrcsr]

Just now, Iriswest said:

Move cheyyanu 2016 ki ani telchi cheppesadu ga monna. Inkem movement. Again Jan 2015 will be the new DOF for EB3 in FY22. Will retrogress in Q2 or Q3.

anadariki current chesi padesi ead ap lu mokaana esesi unofficial ga 140 ead rule implement chesi, koncham ead ap rules flexible  chesesthe aipotadi emmo , vila dramaalu vila processing aye pani kaadu

[Steelers]

4 minutes ago, csrcsr said:

Not every body malli andulo 2011 2012 can get gc but 2010 eb2 might struck for ever emi logico adike teliyali

2010 pending undadam kashtam le, unless bg check emaina issue unte thappa. based on the data we have (very less numbers in 2011).... avi clear chestharu anukuntunna 2022 lo. 

[Iriswest]

8 minutes ago, csrcsr said:

I don't understand he is saying some rhing related to 140 downgrades how will more downgrade approval will impact these movement naaku ardam kaadu are they going to remove a downgrade number from eb2 queue or they going to consider both and make them struck for both queues

Ippudu only 7k of the downgrades applied for pp till q2. So total downgrades are not counted in EB3 now. Ippudu downgrades numbers entha twaraga flow aithe antha twaraga retrogress avutai dates antunnadu.

[Iriswest]

2 minutes ago, csrcsr said:

anadariki current chesi padesi ead ap lu mokaana esesi unofficial ga 140 ead rule implement chesi, koncham ead ap rules flexible  chesesthe aipotadi emmo , vila dramaalu vila processing aye pani kaadu

Ala aithe bagane undu. Avva ledu buvva ledu antunnadu CO akkada.

[csrcsr]

Just now, Steelers said:

2010 pending undadam kashtam le, unless bg check emaina issue unte thappa. based on the data we have (very less numbers in 2011).... avi clear chestharu anukuntunna 2022 lo. 

bro maa friedn october filere 2010 pd fad lo current ayyi 3 4 bulletins avutundi sappdu ledu no ead, no ap where as later reciept numbners, later pds got processed , his fp goot completed on april second week assmuing bg shuld be cleared by now , cheptuna as example